1月28日消息，比特币（BTC）在1月25日触及阶段性低点后出现技术性反弹，截至发稿时价格回升约3.74%，报89,300美元附近。此前，美国总统特朗普在与北约秘书长 Mark Rutte 会晤后表示，短期内不会加征新的关税，这一表态在一定程度上缓解了宏观层面的不确定性情绪，也为风险资产提供了喘息空间。
不过，市场结构并未出现实质性改善。数据显示，巨鲸地址的资金余额持续上升，而中小规模持有者则逐步退出市场，资金分化特征明显。尽管地缘政治紧张有所降温，但比特币要在9万美元上方站稳，仍高度依赖持续且强劲的现货资金流入。即将到来的美联储公开市场委员会会议，也可能进一步放大价格波动。
多位链上分析师对当前行情持谨慎态度。CryptoQuant 分析师 Julio Moreno 指出，多个曾被视为“周期顶部指南”的经典模型正在相继失效，包括 S2F、幂律模型、M2 流动性指标以及商业周期指标。他认为，市场不断更换叙事来强化多头信念，却忽视了数据本身所反映的趋势——比特币仍处在熊市环境中。
分析师 Axel Adler Jr 同样警告，加密市场的寒意正在加深。与2017年和2021年周期相比，本轮比特币在彩虹图上的最高位置仅停留在“积累”区间，远未触及历史意义上的极端高估区域。这意味着，若熊市判断成立，当前周期的价格结构可能已明显偏离过往规律。
与此同时，曾多次精准捕捉顶部的 Pi 周期指标也尚未给出卖出信号，进一步加剧了市场分歧。除非比特币真的在2026年冲向15万美元以上的新高，否则多项指标之间的错位，或预示着一个更复杂、也更漫长的调整阶段仍在展开。
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