2月2日消息，比特币近期跌至约75,000美元，年内跌幅已达14%，刷新去年4月以来低位。这一轮回调再次暴露出一个残酷现实：即便到了2026年，整个加密货币市场仍高度依赖比特币走势，所谓“分散投资”在极端行情下几乎失效。
尽管如今市场上已有数千种代币，但它们在下跌周期中仍然与比特币同涨同跌。多项指数显示，今年以来，多数加密资产相关指数下滑15%至19%，而与DeFi、智能合约和计算网络相关的板块跌幅更是达到20%至25%。就连具备真实收入来源的区块链协议，其代币价格也未能摆脱与BTC的强相关。
数据显示，过去30天内，部分去中心化协议和Layer 1网络依然贡献了可观收入，但其代币表现却普遍走弱。AAVE年内下跌超过20%，只有少数项目如HYPE在特定应用推动下保持相对韧性。Arca首席投资官 Jeff Dorman 指出，市场仍把BTC、ETH、SOL视为“避险主流资产”，而真正能产生现金流的协议却被忽视。
10x Research 创始人 Markus Thielen 认为，稳定币的普及加剧了这一现象。作为“现金等价物”，它们使投资者在风险来临时迅速撤离，从而放大比特币主导效应。与此同时，BTC长期占据加密市场50%以上市值，也使真正的资产分散更加困难。
展望未来，随着机构资金继续集中于比特币，其在加密生态中的核心地位或将长期延续。Orbit Markets 联合创始人 Jimmy Yang 表示，资金将继续向BTC靠拢，行业整合也将加速。围绕“比特币主导地位”“加密市场相关性”“BTC下跌影响”等话题，投资者对风险结构的再评估正持续升温。
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