Odaily星球日报讯 Wintermute 于 X 发文表示,可以明确的是,我们已经身处熊市,而且事实上已经持续了一段时间 —— 尤其从山寨币表现、反弹的极端集中性,以及 X 上的市场情绪来看。但本轮熊市的不同之处在于,这一次并非由 FTX、Luna、3AC 这类结构性爆雷所引发,而是由宏观环境和周期性趋势变化推动的、相对自然的去杠杆过程,其核心驱动力来自仓位、风险偏好与市场叙事的变化。
这一点非常关键。由于没有破产清算和系统性传染,本轮周期可能比以往的熊市更快结束。基础设施更为稳健,稳定币采用仍在增长,机构兴趣并未消失,只是暂时退居观望。一旦环境改善,注意力和资金都可能迅速回归——大概率发生在 2026 年下半年,届时宏观不确定性下降,美联储政策路径也将更加清晰。
短期来看,清算过后仓位已经明显变轻,但市场信心依然不足。在经历了两个月的区间震荡后,我们重新回到价格发现阶段。现在谈论任何有意义的上行趋势都还为时尚早,但如果出现,其形态可能会比以往熊市中看到的反转更加清晰——因为这一次,加密生态并未遭受结构性破坏。
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Articoli correlati
Bitcoin Rises Nearly 3% in 24 Hours, Eyes $80,000 Level
Bitcoin rose nearly 3% over the past 24 hours as it continues to target the $80,000 level amid broader market movements in equities and commodities.
GateNews2h fa
BNB Holds $600 as Hard Fork Nears and Bulls Eye Breakout
Key Insights:
BNB holds above 600 as traders lock profits while attention shifts toward Osaka. The Mendel upgrade is expected to influence short-term price direction.
Fast finality and fee stability improvements aim to attract institutional usage, while increased activity could accelerate to
CryptoNewsLand4h fa
BNB Holds $600 as Hard Fork Nears and Bulls Eye Breakout
Key Insights:
BNB holds above 600 as traders lock profits while attention shifts toward Osaka. The Mendel upgrade is expected to influence short-term price direction.
Fast finality and fee stability improvements aim to attract institutional usage, while increased activity could accelerate to
CryptoNewsLand4h fa
PEPE Price Feeds Collapse as Volume Stays Active Across Markets
Key Insights:
PEPE price feeds show zero values across indicators while trading volume remains active, creating a disconnect between market activity and visible data.
Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD continue updating, but they lack relevance due to missing price data and broken chart s
CryptoNewsLand4h fa
PEPE Price Feeds Collapse as Volume Stays Active Across Markets
Key Insights:
PEPE price feeds show zero values across indicators while trading volume remains active, creating a disconnect between market activity and visible data.
Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD continue updating, but they lack relevance due to missing price data and broken chart s
CryptoNewsLand4h fa