进入二月第二周，比特币仍在7万美元附近徘徊，市场情绪偏谨慎。多位交易员认为，当前价格尚未构筑可靠的长期底部，未来几周仍存在再次下探的可能，部分观点甚至指向5万美元区间。
交易员 CrypNuevo 指出，近期的反弹更像是为清理7.2万至7.7万美元区间的空头仓位而设计的短期拉升，而非趋势反转。他预计，前期形成的长影线将被逐步回补，过程可能持续数周。另一位分析人士 Daan Crypto Trades 认为，在经历剧烈波动后，比特币更可能进入震荡整理阶段，等待新的方向指引。
宏观层面，本周的核心变量来自美国。1月份CPI数据即将公布，而市场对美联储3月降息的预期明显降温。CME Group 的FedWatch数据显示，利率维持不变的概率已升至82%。在特朗普提名 Kevin Warsh 出任美联储主席的背景下，投资者担心货币政策将更趋强硬。Mosaic Asset Company 指出，高企的核心通胀与稳健的经济增长，正推高长期利率预期，并持续压制风险资产估值。
美元走势同样值得关注。美元指数在1月触及多年低位后反弹，但仍未站稳98上方。分析师 Aksel Kibar 认为，这是十年来的关键区域，可能决定中长期方向。Swissblock 首席宏观经济学家 Henrik Zeberg 则将当前形态与2021年初进行对比，认为若历史重演，比特币仍可能在未来数月出现大幅拉升，但最终会在强势美元背景下见顶。
亚洲方面，日本政局变化被视为新的扰动因素。高市早苗连任后，市场预期日本将采取更积极的财政刺激政策，日元走弱风险上升。XWIN Research Japan 指出，日元贬值可能改变全球资本流向，对包括比特币在内的风险资产构成短期压力。Robin Brooks 也警告，大选结束后，日元可能再次面临下行冲击。
链上数据方面，矿工行为出现异动。2月5日，矿工向交易所转入约24,000枚比特币，创下2024年以来新高。CryptoQuant 分析师 Arab Chain 认为，这反映了市场正处于再分配阶段，短期抛压或将增加，但不必然意味着长期趋势转空。
在多重宏观与链上信号交织之下，比特币的下一步走势仍充满不确定性。CPI数据、美联储政策预期、美元与日元变化，将共同决定本周市场的风险方向。
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