比特币再破7万美元!链上与ETF齐降温,分析师警告“BTC难拉升”?

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BTC1,95%

2月10日消息,比特币价格再度走弱,失守7万美元关键支撑位。截至发稿时,BTC报约68,979美元,24小时下跌2%。从多周期来看,跌势仍在延续:一周跌12%,一个月跌23%,同比回落约30%。自2025年10月触及126,080美元历史高点以来,累计跌幅已接近45%,市场情绪明显趋于谨慎。

这轮下行并非瞬间崩盘,而是持续抛售叠加流动性退潮的结果。现货市场方面,24小时成交量放大至约520亿美元,显示资金正在频繁换手。衍生品层面,期货成交量升至约700亿美元,而未平仓合约却同步下降,表明多空正在加速平仓,新增杠杆意愿有限。

CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju指出,比特币当前“难以拉升”,因为卖压吸收资金的速度超过了其对价格的正向传导。他对比称,2024年较小规模的资金流入就能放大市值,而2025年大量资金进入却未能托住价格,显示抛售正在削弱乘数效应。链上数据亦出现异常波动,Amr Taha提到,近期多笔超5000枚BTC的大额转账进入主要托管通道,释放出高位派发的信号。

机构端的需求也在降温。美国现货比特币ETF持仓在2025年10月见顶后持续回落,截至2月9日已较峰值减少约9万枚BTC,显示资金正在从被动配置中撤离。

技术面上,7万美元由支撑转为阻力。价格受制于20日与50日均线,RSI徘徊在超卖区间但缺乏反转信号。若不能快速收复71,000美元,短线仍面临下探压力;一旦跌破68,000美元,市场可能测试更低区间。

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