BlockBeats 消息，2 月 13 日，美国劳工统计局将于北京时间周五晚 21:30 公布 1 月 CPI 数据。市场预计，1 月整体 CPI 同比上涨 2.5%，低于前值 2.7%；核心 CPI 同比亦料回落至 2.5%，环比增速或升至 0.3%。若数据符合预期，整体通胀将降至 2025 年 5 月以来低位，延续自去年 9 月高点回落的趋势。

分析人士指出，住房成本涨幅放缓或压制服务价格，但关税传导、企业年初提价及旅行相关分项价格仍可能对通胀构成支撑。RBC 预计核心 CPI 环比或达 0.4%，高于市场预期。

尽管通胀数据或进一步降温，但市场普遍认为难以撼动美联储当前「观望」立场。芝商所工具显示，美联储至少在 7 月前维持利率不变的概率较高。经济学家指出，在财政扩张与此前三次降息的背景下，决策层更关注通胀回落的可持续性及就业市场表现。

当前联邦基金利率目标区间为 3.5%-3.75%。部分机构认为，即便通胀回落至 2.5%，仍属「正常区间」，但短期内政策路径或不会因单月数据出现明显调整。

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