2月25日消息，据CoinDesk报道，随着美元走弱及亚洲股市风险偏好回升，加密市场出现数周以来较为明显的反弹走势，比特币价格重新站上约65,400美元关口，带动主流数字资产同步回暖。市场人士普遍关注当前区域是否构成关键技术支撑，以及“双底形态”能否成立。
宏观层面上，美元指数走软与亚洲股市走强形成共振，提升了风险资产吸引力。MSCI亚洲股指上涨并刷新阶段高位，韩国和中国台湾股市表现强劲，叠加人工智能相关股票上涨，使市场情绪有所修复。在美国总统特朗普发表国情咨文后，彭博美元现货指数小幅回落，间接为比特币等加密资产提供上行动能。
FxPro首席市场分析师Alex Kuptsikevich指出，当前比特币走势正在测试潜在的双底结构。如果价格能够稳固在2月5日低点上方，技术形态或确认，理论上存在约10%的反弹空间；但若支撑失守，则可能触发更深层回调，跌幅风险或扩大至25%。这一关键区间被视为短期趋势分水岭。
在比特币反弹带动下，以太坊、Solana及XRP等主流代币同步上涨，显示资金对风险资产的阶段性回流。不过，分析师仍对市场情绪保持谨慎态度。数据显示，比特币自历史高点回撤接近50%，市场信心尚未完全恢复，增量资金与明确催化剂仍显不足。
值得注意的是，尽管美元走弱通常利好比特币走势，但本轮周期中两者相关性出现波动，使行情不确定性加剧。部分机构观点认为，当前反弹更接近技术修复，而非趋势性反转。Kuptsikevich进一步警告，若宏观环境再度收紧或风险偏好降温，市场仍可能面临“二次探底”，甚至不排除更大级别下行压力。
在宏观政策、美元流动性与技术结构三重变量交织下，比特币后市走势将高度依赖关键支撑位能否守住，短期波动率或继续维持高位。
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