This article by Biteye analyzes 15 common top indicators and finds that one-fifth of the indicators have already reached the top range in 2024. These include:

Bitcoin Rhodl ratio, USDT demand savings, and the altcoin season index.

So, how should we respond to the market’s future developments? Below is an analysis of

the 15 indicators.

1. AHR999 holding indicator

This indicator was created by Weibo user ahr999 to help Bitcoin investors make investment decisions using a dollar-cost averaging strategy. It reflects the short-term returns of Bitcoin DCA and the deviation of Bitcoin’s price from its expected valuation.

Indicator range:

• >4: Suggested significant position reduction

• 1.2-4: Observation zone, stay cautious

• 0.45-1.2: DCA zone, gradual accumulation

• <0.45: Strong buy zone

Current status: The indicator value is 1.21, not yet at the top, within the observation range, caution is advised.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999

2. AHR999 top indicator

The AHR999 top indicator is a sister indicator to the holding indicator, specifically designed to identify market tops. It measures the deviation of price from the long-term trend line to determine market overheating. It accurately signaled the market tops in the 2017 and 2021 bull runs, making it a crucial tool for avoiding buying at the peak.

Indicator range:

• <=0.45: Severely overheated, consider exiting

Current status: The indicator value is 2.48, and no top signal has appeared in this cycle.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/ahr999-escape…

3. Pi cycle top indicator

The Pi cycle top indicator predicts potential market tops by comparing the relationship between the 111-day and 350-day moving averages. Historically, when these moving averages cross, Bitcoin’s price is usually near its cycle top, indicating a potential market reversal.

Signal characteristics:

• Cross of the two lines: Top signal triggered

• Rapid divergence: Bearish outlook

• Gradual convergence: Warning sign

Current status: The two moving averages are still far apart, with no top signal detected. The next expected crossover is in October 2025.

Link:https://bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-prediction/…

4. Bitcoin rainbow chart

The rainbow chart is an intuitive long-term valuation model that divides Bitcoin’s price range into nine different color bands. Based on logarithmic regression, it accounts for Bitcoin’s long-term growth and cyclical trends. Over multiple market cycles, the rainbow chart has proven useful, especially in identifying extreme zones.

Indicator range:

• Red: Bubble zone, sell signal

• Yellow: Overheated zone, stay cautious

• Green: Healthy zone, holding area

• Blue: Value zone, buying opportunity

Current status: Price is in the green zone, indicating a relatively fair valuation with no top signal detected.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/bitcoin-rainbow-chart…

5. Bitcoin terminal price indicator

The terminal price is calculated by multiplying the transferred price by 21. The transferred price factors in destroyed coin days, the total Bitcoin supply, and its circulation period. This indicator effectively filters out speculative market noise and reflects Bitcoin’s true network value.

Signal characteristics: The closer Bitcoin’s price is to the red line, the closer the market is to its top.

Current status: Not yet at the top.

Link:https://bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/terminal-price/…

6. Bitcoin market dominance

The market dominance indicator reflects Bitcoin’s dominance in the overall cryptocurrency market. It is often used to assess market cycles and capital flows. A decline in Bitcoin’s market dominance typically signals a shift of funds into altcoins. Historical data suggests that changes in Bitcoin’s dominance often precede key turning points in the crypto market.

Indicator range:

• 65%: Bitcoin dominance phase

• 40-65%: Balance phase

• <40%: Altcoin season

Current status: Market dominance is around 60%, within a relatively balanced range.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/MarketCap…

7. Bitcoin CBBI Index

CBBI (Combined Bitcoin Binary Index) is a composite index that integrates multiple technical indicators and on-chain data to effectively identify the transition points of bull and bear cycles. Its advantage lies in reducing the limitations of single indicators through multidimensional data.

Indicator range: Greater than 90 indicates the market has reached a peak.

Current status: The index value is 79, indicating the market is slightly overheated but has not yet peaked.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/cbbi-index…

8, Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score

The MVRV Z-Score is an important on-chain analysis indicator that assesses market cycles by comparing the deviation between market value and realized value. When this indicator is too high, it suggests that Bitcoin’s market value is overestimated relative to its actual value, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin prices; conversely, a lower value indicates undervaluation. Based on historical trends, when this indicator reaches a historically high level, the probability of a downward trend in Bitcoin prices increases, so caution is needed against buying at a high.

Indicator range: Greater than 5 indicates the market has reached a peak.

Current status: The index is 2.5, not yet at a peak.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/bitcoin-mvrv-zscore…

9, Bitcoin Rhodl Ratio

The Rhodl Ratio is a composite on-chain indicator that assesses potential market turning points by comparing the behavior of coin holders from different time periods. When the RHODL ratio approaches the red band, it may indicate an overheated market. Historically, this has been a good opportunity for investors to take profits in each cycle.

Indicator range: Approaching the red band may indicate an overheated market. A ratio of ≥10,000 suggests the market is near its peak.

Current status: Currently not in the red band, but in November 2024, this indicator entered the peak zone.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/r-hodl-system…

10. Bitcoin Mayer Multiple

The Bitcoin Mayer Multiple is a technical indicator for analyzing market conditions, proposed by Trace Mayer. It evaluates the relative valuation of Bitcoin by comparing its current price with the 200-day moving average (200DMA).

Indicator range:

• Mayer Multiple > 1: Bitcoin’s price is above its 200DMA, indicating a potentially overbought market.

• Mayer Multiple < 1: Bitcoin’s price is below its 200DMA, indicating a potentially oversold market.

• Mayer Multiple ≈ 1: Bitcoin’s price is near its 200DMA, indicating a relatively balanced market.

• Historically, when the Mayer Multiple exceeds 2.4, it often signals an overheated market, which may lead to a pullback or bear market. When it falls below 0.8, the market may be undervalued, potentially creating a buying opportunity.

Current status: The index is 1.26, indicating an overbought market, but not yet at a peak.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/mayer-multiple…

11. ETF Consecutive Net Outflow Days

This indicator tracks the capital flow of Bitcoin ETFs, with consecutive days of net outflows often reflecting institutional investor sentiment. This is a relatively new indicator that has gained attention since the launch of spot ETFs.

Signal characteristics:

• 10 days: Significant bearish signal

• 5-10 days: Caution required

• <5 days: Normal fluctuations

Current status: 1 consecutive day of net outflows, within the normal market fluctuation range. The longest period in this cycle was 8 days, without reaching 10 days.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/bitcoin-etf

12. ETF’s Share of BTC Supply

This indicator reflects the proportion of Bitcoin held by ETFs relative to the total circulating supply, helping assess institutional participation. It indicates the degree of acceptance and engagement of Bitcoin within traditional financial institutions.

Signal characteristics: <=3.5% is a peak signal, also implying low institutional participation.

Current status: The proportion is close to 6%, indicating healthy institutional participation growth.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/bitcoin-etf

13. USDT Savings Yield

The USDT savings yield is an important indicator for measuring market capital costs and reflects overall liquidity conditions in the cryptocurrency market.

Signal characteristics: >=29% is a peak zone.

Current status: The yield is approximately 6.68%, within the normal range. However, in March 2024, this indicator entered the peak zone, reaching 65%.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/MarginFeeChart…

14. Altcoin Season Index

This indicator determines whether the market has entered an altcoin season. By comparing Bitcoin’s performance with major altcoins, it helps assess whether capital is shifting toward riskier small-cap coins.

Indicator range:

• 75: Altcoin season, above 75 suggests the market is near a peak.

• 25-75: Balanced phase

• <25: Bitcoin dominance phase

Current status: The index is 41, but in December 2024, it entered the peak zone, reaching 88.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/alt-coin-season…

15. MicroStrategy Cost Indicator

This indicator tracks MicroStrategy’s average Bitcoin holding cost, serving as a benchmark for institutional investors. As one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, MicroStrategy’s cost line often becomes a key psychological price point in the market.

Indicator range:

• Current price above cost: Institutional profit zone

• Current price near cost: Support level

• Current price below cost: Potential buying opportunity

Current status: MicroStrategy’s average cost is around $60,000, within the institutional profit zone.

Link:https://coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/micro-strategy-cost…

“Bear markets bankrupt you, bull markets make you poor.” Staying rational during market euphoria and exiting during mania is much harder than buying at the bottom. Currently, only some indicators show peak signals, and this doesn’t confirm that the market has definitely topped. If you believe the market is at risk of peaking, consider:

• Setting partial sell-off points, rather than waiting for a perfect top.

• Converting profits into stablecoins or fiat currency instead of shifting into riskier altcoins.

• Selling early at high points rather than late. Taking profits is not the end, but a way to accumulate ammunition for the next round.

Remember, every top is an opportunity for some to create wealth and a trap for most. The opportunities are equal for everyone, but those who are prepared are often the ones who seize them.

Disclaimer：

1. This article is reprinted from [Biteye]. All copyrights belong to the original author [Biteye]. If there are objections to this reprint, please contact the Gate Learn team, and they will handle it promptly.
2. Liability Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not constitute any investment advice.
3. Translations of the article into other languages are done by the Gate Learn team. Unless mentioned, copying, distributing, or plagiarizing the translated articles is prohibited.