TL;DR

• BTC fluctuated between $99,000 and $92,600 this week, repeatedly testing resistance levels and attempting an upward breakout.
• ETH displayed an ascending triangle convergence pattern this week, with significant resistance near $3,540.
• Gate.io’s quant fund achieved an annualized return of 38%, setting a new industry record.
• The transaction share of Runes on the Bitcoin network fell to a new low.
• Tokens of public chains such as SUI, OP, and ZETA are set for major unlocks next week, requiring close attention from investors.
• The EU crypto regulation, Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), will take effect on December 30.

Market Analysis

Review and Insights

• BTC Market— Following Bitcoin’s retreat from its all-time high of $108,314.7 last week, market sentiment has turned cautious. BTC has settled into a range-bound consolidation pattern with tighter price action. The key resistance level at $99,000 has seen significant selling pressure, with bulls making several unsuccessful attempts to break through. Meanwhile, support at $92,600 has proven resilient, suggesting limited downside potential in the near term. A successful breakthrough and hold above resistance could reinvigorate market confidence and spark a strong upward move. However, if price breaks below support, bearish momentum could accelerate, pushing BTC into a lower trading range. The market remains in a critical standoff, with traders watching closely for the next decisive move. [1]

• ETH Market — After falling from its all-time high of $4,105.47 last week, Ethereum entered an ascending triangle convergence pattern this week. Market sentiment is cautiously optimistic as the price steadily advances, supported by the ascending trendline. Resistance is concentrated around $3,540, a key short-term challenge for bulls. A successful breakout and consolidation above this level could trigger new upward momentum, potentially pushing the price into higher ranges. Conversely, if the ascending trendline is breached, the price may revert to a consolidation phase, with bulls and bears battling for dominance once again.[2]

• Altcoins — Over the past seven days, altcoins experienced significant declines around December 20, but their performance was mixed. Weaker altcoins have retraced to levels seen during the U.S. presidential election in November, while stronger altcoins only underwent normal corrections and have since rebounded significantly. Ecosystems such as Virtuals Protocol, Pump.fun, and AI Agent Launchpad have shown strong growth, with several related tokens posting large gains, including some that doubled in value.[3]
• Options Market — Following last week’s options market shakeout, spot prices have consolidated within a range. This Friday’s expiration of approximately $20 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options could trigger end-of-quarter volatility, particularly if prices remain sideways and sellers roll their short positions. A BTC breakthrough above $100,000 might stabilize volatility and create opportunities for altcoin growth. Despite U.S. and European market closures for Christmas, the crypto market has posted significant gains, with Bitcoin leading the way. The holiday season and year-end settlement period’s reduced liquidity means price movements need less momentum to make an impact. Short-term implied volatility (IV) has declined since yesterday as market makers complete their rebalancing, and IV is likely to remain stable through year-end. Bitcoin options currently show a maximum pain point at $84,000, while Ethereum’s sits at $3,000—though historically, these levels often prove insignificant.[4]
• Macro Data — On the evening of December 20, the U.S. released PCE and core PCE data, which came in below expectations, alleviating some concerns among investors about fewer rate cuts next year. According to the U.S. Commerce Department, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, rose 2.4% year-over-year in November, compared to economists’ forecast of 2.5%. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data suggest that the PCE price index reflects a surprising overall cooling. This led to a sell-off in the dollar, while U.S. stocks, gold, and crypto markets rebounded. [5]
• Stablecoins — Over the past seven days, the total market capitalization of stablecoins rose 0.29% to $204.786 billion. The short-term growth rate has slowed due to reduced holiday demand, aligning with the recent market trend.[6]
• Gas Fees — Over the past seven days, Ethereum’s average gas fee dropped significantly to 4.58 Gwei, reflecting reduced network activity. Previously, Ethereum network gas fees briefly spiked to 54.3 Gwei, possibly influenced by a statement from the OpenSea Foundation hinting at a forthcoming OpenSea token launch. [7]

Trending Concepts

This week, Bitcoin’s price initially fell before recovering, fluctuating within the range of $92,300 to $102,773.5. Altcoin performance varied across sectors. According to CoinGecko data, the top-performing sectors over the past week were Virtuals Protocol Ecosystem, Pump.fun Ecosystem, and AI Agent Launchpad, with weekly gains of approximately 37.7%, 22%, and 21.8%, respectively.[8]

Virtuals Protocol Ecosystem —— Virtuals Protocol is a decentralized platform that uses blockchain technology and tokenization to create a new economic model for creators and users in virtual worlds. The platform transforms virtual assets into investable, tradable digital products with lasting value. Driven by broader market momentum and its unique trading features, this sector experienced strong growth in the past seven days, rising over 31.8% as of December 26, 00:00 (UTC+0). Notable tokens in the sector include DORA, which surged 1,000.2% over the past seven days, and GAME, which gained 177.8% during the same period.[9]

Pump.fun Ecosystem —— The Pump.fun ecosystem is an innovative platform designed for memecoin creators and traders, simplifying token creation and trading. Users can create a new token by paying just 0.02 SOL, entering a token name, and uploading an image. Other users can buy and sell these tokens on a pricing curve, creating a fair launch market environment. When a token reaches a market cap of $69k, the platform automatically injects liquidity into Raydium and burns tokens to ensure security and liquidity. Additionally, creators completing the bonding curve receive a reward of 0.5 SOL.

Notable tokens in this sector include JOI, which surged 3,247.5% over the past seven days,TRISIG, which rose 473.2%, and BGG1, which gained 173.1%.[10]

AI Agent Launchpad —— AI Agent represents a system driven by large language models with capabilities for autonomous understanding, perception, planning, memory, and tool usage. It automates complex tasks and is distinct from traditional AI due to its ability to independently think and execute step-by-step actions to achieve given objectives.

Notable tokens in this sector include PAAL, which gained 36.1% over the past seven days, VIRTUAL, which rose 33.6%, and AI9000, which increased 32.3%. [11]

Top Performers

According to Gate.io data, the top-performing tokens over the past 7 days are as follows: [12]

Move — Weekly increase of approximately 84.6%, with a circulating market cap of $2.698 billion.
Movement Network is a blockchain ecosystem based on modular Move, enabling developers to build secure, high-performance, and interoperable blockchain applications. It bridges the gap between the MoveVM and EVM ecosystems.

The recent price surge may be attributed to positive official announcements. The Movement Network Foundation announced the launch of an ecosystem grant program, now open for funding and proposal submissions. The program aims to support builders, developers, and creators in advancing decentralized applications and infrastructure within the Movement ecosystem. The focus is on encouraging innovative use cases, public goods, and tools based on the MoveVM. Specific projects or tools contributing to ecosystem growth will receive regular Requests for Funding (RFM). [13]

VIRTUAL — Weekly increase of approximately 28.9%, with a circulating market cap of $3.218 billion.
Virtuals Protocol is an AI protocol that creates various AI characters for different virtual worlds (such as games or online spaces) that can respond via text, voice, and actions. The protocol incentivizes the decentralized creation and monetization of AI characters for every virtual interaction (gaming, metaverse, online interactions, or otherwise).

The recent price increase may have been driven by the latest news that Questflow has announced a deep partnership with leading decentralized application platform Virtuals to co-develop the Base Agents ecosystem. [14]

HBAR — Weekly increase of approximately 18.9%, with a circulating market cap of $11.95 billion.
Hedera is a public ledger network utilizing hashgraph consensus, which is fast (>10,000+ TPS), secure (ABFT), and fair (providing transparent timestamps for all transactions without hidden records). The HBAR token serves multiple functions:

1. It ensures network security by using a proof-of-stake model where nodes vote on consensus based on their HBAR holdings, preventing Sybil attacks.
2. It rewards nodes for achieving consensus and supports activities such as API payments and microtransactions.
3. It allows users to access Hedera APIs and services built on its platform.

HBAR’s recent price surge may be linked to Bloomberg analysts predicting the launch of an HBAR ETF next year. Additionally, HBAR has been one of the strong-performing large-cap tokens in Q4 this year.[15]

Weekly Spotlights

Hot Topic Review

NERC Report: Crypto Mining and AI Centers Push North American Power Demand to New Heights
The latest report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) reveals that the rapid growth of cryptocurrency mining and AI data centers is driving North American electricity demand to new highs. For example, in Texas, the annual growth rate of peak summer electricity demand is projected to reach 4.6% by 2029, four times the previous forecast. NERC noted that electricity consumption from crypto mining fluctuates with market prices, while AI data centers require consistent cooling and storage energy, posing challenges to grid management.

To address this trend, Texas has implemented energy response programs and passed HB 3390 to enhance distributed energy management. Some mining companies, such as MARA, are also shifting to renewable energy. As crypto mining and AI data centers grow rapidly, North America faces unprecedented energy demand pressures, increasing risks of energy shortages and grid instability. [16]

Robinhood CEO: Traditional Financial Assets Could Move On-Chain, Following Crypto’s Path
Vlad Tenev, CEO of U.S.-based online brokerage Robinhood, predicts that stocks and other traditional financial (TradFi) assets will eventually move on-chain like cryptocurrencies, driven by the efficiency of blockchain technology. He further predicted that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump and his administration might establish policies to accelerate the tokenization of stocks, private companies, and real-world assets (RWA) onto the blockchain.

Tenev sees on-chain trading as the logical evolution of traditional financial processes, offering simpler operations. According to RWA.xyz, major stock tokenization issuers—including Backed Assets, Dinari, and Swarm X—have reached $12.24 million in tokenized stocks, marking a 110% increase from 2023. This sustained growth in tokenized stock assets continues to generate optimism among industry leaders. [17][18]

BIO Protocol Community Proposes “Bridge BIO to Solana”
The DeSci protocol BIO Protocol community has proposed migrating BIO tokens cross-chain to Solana to expand its reach. By deploying BIO tokens on the Solana blockchain, the protocol aims to establish a liquidity pool to enhance accessibility for BIO tokens and other tokens within the BIO ecosystem, laying the foundation for BIO Protocol’s deployment on Solana.

If the proposal passes, the BIO community will adopt the following actions via the BIO Association: 1. Build cross-chain bridging infrastructure for seamless token transfers to and from Solana; 2. Deploy the BIO token contract on Solana; 3. Allocate an additional 1% of ecosystem incentives to a market liquidity fund for deploying liquidity pools on Solana and potentially other blockchains. This proposal highlights Solana’s influence in the crypto industry as a high-performance blockchain. With its fast transaction speeds and low fees, Solana could help BIO attract more users, increasing trading volume and liquidity.[19]

Security Incident

DeFi Security Incidents Fall 40% in 2024, as CeFi Platforms Face $694M in Losses
Blockchain security firm Hacken released its annual “Web3 Security Report” this week, highlighting a 40% reduction in DeFi-related losses due to security incidents from 2023 to 2024. This improvement is attributed to protocol advancements, enhanced bridging mechanisms, and stronger encryption measures. However, centralized exchanges (CeFi) became major targets for access control vulnerabilities and other critical security risks, with related incidents doubling and losses rising to $694 million.

In DeFi, total financial losses dropped significantly from $787 million in 2023 to $474 million in 2024. Losses related to cross-chain bridge security incidents decreased dramatically from $338 million to $114 million. Despite advances in security, such as multi-party computation and zero-knowledge proof technology, challenges remain. Access control vulnerabilities continue to threaten DeFi security, exemplified by the $55 million hack of Radiant Capital. [20]

Project Highlights

StakeStone Launches its Second Vault Product: Berachain Vault
StakeStone has launched its second Vault product, the Berachain Vault, as part of its cross-chain liquidity infrastructure. This product offers a comprehensive service for Berachain deposits (Boyco pre-deposit activities) and exclusive rewards from Berachain PoL (Proof of Liquidity) mining. Participants can unlock additional opportunities in blue-chip DeFi applications, such as trading, lending, and leveraged yield farming, using the vault’s LP tokens beraSTONE/beraSBTC. Users of the Berachain Vault will earn liquidity rewards, including up to 1.5% of the total supply in STO governance tokens, BERA token rewards from Berachain pre-mining, PoL mining yields after Berachain’s mainnet launch, and additional ecosystem rewards such as Kodiak and Dolomite tokens.[21]

Data Highlights

Gate.io Quant Fund Achieves 38% Annualized Return, Setting Industry Record
According to the latest data on December 25, Gate.io’s quant fund has once again set a new industry record for performance. Its USDT quarterly annualized return reached 31%, and BTC quarterly annualized return hit 22%, maintaining its position as the top-performing digital asset quant investment product. Particularly notable are its short-term investment returns, with a 30-day annualized USDT return of 38% and BTC return of 23%.

The Gate.io quant fund is managed by a top-tier quant team with over three years of experience, employing a neutral arbitrage strategy with all transactions completed internally on the platform, ensuring fund security. Its low entry threshold, no lock-up period, and zero fees make it an ideal choice for low-risk investors, offering a unique balance of returns and flexibility. [22]

Runes Trading Share on Bitcoin Network Drops to Record Low
The trading share of Runes on the Bitcoin network has fallen to a record low of just 1.67% of daily transactions, a stark contrast to its dominance earlier this year when it accounted for over 50% of daily Bitcoin transactions from April to November. Daily transaction fees for Runes have also remained below $250,000, indicating lower network activity compared to previous periods.

The decline in Runes activity aligns with broader market dynamics and shifting investor focus. Bitcoin’s price volatility has drawn attention away from experimental Bitcoin-based protocols like Runes and Ordinals, which are often seen as high-risk applications. Other areas, such as AI agents, memecoins, and Ethereum-based NFTs, have gained market share, possibly leading to reduced interest in Bitcoin token protocols. The sharp drop in network share—from over 50% to below 10%—reflects a significant shift in Bitcoin network usage patterns, indicating that speculative interest has moved to other areas of the crypto market. [23]

South Korea’s Digital Asset Investors Reach 15.59 Million, Total Holdings at 102.6 Trillion KRW
According to Yonhap News, data submitted by Democratic Party Representative and National Assembly Planning and Finance Committee member Lim Kwang-hyun reveals that South Korea’s digital asset investors reached 15.59 million by November’s end—an increase of 610,000 from October and representing over 30% of the country’s population. The total value of digital assets held stands at 102.6 trillion won ($70 billion), while deposit amounts—funds stored but not invested in exchanges—total 8.8 trillion won ($600 million). This data encompasses accounts at South Korea’s five major exchanges (Upbit, Bithumb, Coinone, Korbit, and Gopax), though numbers may include overlap from users with multiple exchange accounts. The digital asset market’s growth in South Korea has been propelled by government regulatory measures, including real-name verification and KYC procedures, which have strengthened market safety and transparency while enhancing investor confidence. [24]

Market Opportunities

Project Airdrops

Airdrop Project to Watch This Week: MindDAO

MindDAO, a member of DataDAO led by VANA, addresses the issue of mental health and emotional tracking by building a community-driven data collection platform focused on these areas. By empowering individuals to monitor their emotional well-being, MindDAO facilitates the aggregation of anonymous emotional data, enabling the community to gain valuable insights and contribute to the development of empathetic AI models. [25]

The total supply of MIND tokens is capped at 100 million, with 70% allocated to the community treasury. An additional 10% will be distributed via airdrops to early contributors and partners. 2.5% will be sold in a token presale at a fixed price of approximately $0.05 per token. Another 2.5% of the token supply will be used to provide liquidity on the Vana DataDEX. Finally, 15% of the tokens will be allocated to the team.

How to Participate:

1. Visit the official webpage and connect your wallet.
2. Create an account.
3. Complete the Mind challenges to earn PREMIND points.
4. Complete additional tasks to claim more PREMIND points

Note:
The airdrop program and participation methods are subject to change. Users are advised to follow MindDAO’s official channels for the latest updates. Additionally, users should exercise caution, be aware of potential risks, and conduct thorough research before participating. Gate.io does not guarantee the distribution of future airdrop rewards.

Weekly Fundraising Report

Several projects completed successful fundraising rounds this week across stablecoins, DeFi, and infrastructure sectors. According to RootData, between December 21 and December 27, nine projects announced funding rounds totaling $24.6 million. [26]

Here are the top three fundraising projects by scale:

Avalon Labs completed a $10 million Series A funding round on December 23, with participation from Framework Ventures, UXTO Management, and others. Avalon Labs is an innovative company focused on developing the Bitcoin DeFi ecosystem, primarily issuing the BTC-backed stablecoin USDa. The company aims to transform Bitcoin from a traditional digital value storage tool into a more functional financial instrument, offering diverse use cases for users.

Usual completed a $10 million Series A funding round on December 23, with Binance Labs, Kraken Ventures, and others participating. Usual is a decentralized stablecoin issuance platform that enables distributed ownership and governance of its infrastructure and treasury through its governance token, $USUAL. It eliminates banking and counterparty risks while empowering users to control protocol cash flow and governance, driving sustainable decentralized ecosystem development.

Swan Chain announced the completion of a $2 million funding round on December 24, with participation from DWF Labs, the Optimism Foundation, and Promotony. Originally launched in 2021 as FilSwan, Swan Chain is a decentralized infrastructure project aimed at accelerating AI applications. It leverages Ethereum Layer 2 technology with the OP Stack, combining Web3 with AI to provide a comprehensive solution encompassing storage, computing, bandwidth, and payments.

What to Watch Next Week

Token Unlock

According to Token Unlocks data, several major token unlock events are scheduled for next week (December 28, 2024–January 3, 2025), with a combined value of over $429 million.[27]

Here are the top 3 upcoming unlocks for next week:

SUI - Approximately 64.19 million SUI tokens are scheduled to unlock on January 1, 2025, at 00:00 UTC, representing 2.19% of its circulating supply, with a total value of approximately $295 million. SUI’s recent daily trading volume has been around $2.11 billion, suggesting that this unlock will have minimal impact on the token’s price.

OP - Approximately 31.34 million OP tokens are set to unlock on December 31, 2024, at 00:00 UTC, accounting for 2.32% of its circulating supply, with an estimated value of $61.12 million. OP’s recent daily trading volume has been around $383 million, indicating that the unlock is likely to have a relatively minor impact on the token’s price.

ZETA - Approximately 53.89 million ZETA tokens will unlock on January 1, 2025, at 00:00 UTC, representing 9.35% of its circulating supply, with a total value of approximately $32.86 million. ZETA’s recent daily trading volume is around $42.03 million, meaning the unlocked amount is roughly equal to its average daily volume. This unlock may trigger price volatility for ZETA tokens. The large-scale unlock of 9.35% of the circulating supply could exert significant selling pressure in the coming days. If market demand does not increase, this pressure could negatively impact ZETA’s price. Investors holding ZETA tokens should closely monitor the situation.

Crypto Calendar

Several key events next week (December 28, 2024 - January 3, 2025) could significantly impact cryptocurrency markets, the global economy, and energy sector [28]. On December 30, the EU’s landmark Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework will take effect across its 27 member countries, marking a new era of digital asset regulation. [29] Also on December 30, EU cryptocurrency exchanges must comply with Regulation (EU) 2023/1113 (Travel Rule Guidelines), which requires reporting of fund and crypto asset transfer information. [30] On January 2, 2025, the U.S. will release initial jobless claims data for the week ending December 28.[31] These claims indicate employment conditions and provide insights into the U.S. labor market and broader economic activity. Rising claims typically signal economic weakness and labor market stress, which may increase demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

References:

1. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/trade/BTC_USDT
2. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/trade/ETH_USDT
3. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/bigdata/estimate
4. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/options/OIExpiry
5. CryptoCraft, https://www.cryptocraft.com/#detail=136202
6. Defillama, https://defillama.com/stablecoins
7. Etherscan, https://etherscan.io/gastracker
8. Coingecko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories
9. Coingedcko, https://www.coingecko.com/zh/categories/virtuals-protocol-ecosystem
10. Coingedcko, https://www.coingecko.com/zh/categories/pump-fun
11. Coingedcko, https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/ai-agent-launchpad
12. Coingedcko, https://www.coingecko.com
13. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/zh/trade/MOVE_USDT
14. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/zh/trade/VIRTUAL_USDT
15. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/zh/trade/HBAR_USDT
16. Cointelegraph，https://cointelegraph.com/news/crypto-event-attendee-data-for-sale-scammer-gold-mine
17. The Daily Hodl，https://dailyhodl.com/2024/12/25/robinhood-ceo-vlad-tenev-predicts-stock-market-will-move-on-chain-in-merging-of-crypto-and-equities/
18. RWA.xyz，https://app.rwa.xyz/stocks
19. common.xyz，https://common.xyz/bio-protocol/discussion/26059-proposal-bridge-bio-to-solana
20. Cointelegraph，https://cointelegraph.com/news/defi-security-improvements-vs-cefi-losses-2024
21. X，https://x.com/stake_stone/status/1871907724998664612?s=46&t=ImVlGABBYv-FTaT73CStFw
22. Gate.io，https://www.gate.io/zh/institution/quant-fund?ch=INST_Quant_NewsF_20241219/
23. Theblock，https://www.theblock.co/post/332216/runes-transaction-share-on-the-bitcoin-network-drops-to-new-lows?utm_source=telegram2&utm_medium=social
24. YNA，https://www.yna.co.kr/view/AKR20241224079900002
25. MindDAO，https://minddao.gitbook.io/minddao/what-are-we-trying-to-solve
26. Rootdata，https://www.rootdata.com/Fundraising
27. Tokenomist，https://tokenomist.ai/unlocks
28. Gate.io, https://www.gate.io/zh/calendar
29. Coindesk，https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/12/17/esma-publishes-final-guidance-on-mi-ca-implementation-days-before-deadline?utm_content=editorial&utm_medium=social&utm_term=organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=coindesk_main
30. Cointelegraph，https://cointelegraph.com/news/eu-travel-rule-crypto-exchanges-compliance-2024
31. Jin10，https://rili.jin10.com/day/2024-11-14

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Disclaimer
Investing in the cryptocurrency market involves high risk, and it is recommended that users conduct independent research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products they are purchasing before making any investment decisions. Gate.io is not responsible for any losses or damages caused by such investment decisions.