2025-10-17 15:01:28

#OctoberRateCutForecast The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its October meeting, with a 95.7% probability priced in by markets. This move is driven by concerns over a weakening labor market and slowing economic growth.¹ ² ³

Key Factors Influencing Rate Cuts
- *Labor Market Weakness*: Job creation is slowing, and unemployment has ticked up to 4.3% in August and remained steady in September.
- *Economic Uncertainty*: The ongoing US government shutdown is disrupting key economic data releases, adding to uncertainty.
- *Inflation Concerns*: Tariffs are pushing up prices, but inflation remains a secondary concern compared to labor market worries.

Analyst Predictions
- *ING Group*: Expects 25 basis point rate cuts in October and December, citing weakening business activity and a cooling jobs market.
- *Fed Governor Chris Waller*: Supports a 25 basis point rate cut in October, with further cuts dependent on future data.
- *Fed Governor Stephen Miran*: Advocates for deeper cuts, suggesting 50 basis points or more, citing a weak job market and rising geopolitical risks.⁴

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