The three core contradictions of global capital flows, policy trends, and economic cycles are all pushing Bitcoin and Ethereum toward higher market capitalizations. This is also the fundamental reason why institutional funds dare to continue increasing their positions.

1. Compliant capital continues to flow in, making the capital pool grow larger and larger. After the launch of the US Ethereum spot ETF, cumulative inflows have exceeded $3.7 billion, and institutions like BlackRock and Fidelity are still increasing their ETF holdings every day (with an average daily inflow of $40 million to $80 million). Following the implementation of the MiCA regulation in Europe, banks and fund companies have begun to compliantly distribute crypto assets; in Germany alone, 12 banks have launched cryptocurrency custody services. The incremental space for compliant capital has only just opened.

2. Policy liberalization is a global trend (except for mainland China). The US SEC has shifted from "comprehensive crackdown" to "classified regulation," clearly defining Ethereum as a "commodity" rather than a security, eliminating the greatest regulatory uncertainty. Financial centers like Hong Kong, the UAE, and Singapore are competing to introduce crypto-friendly policies to attract Asian capital, forming a "compliance in the Western Hemisphere + capital inflow in the Eastern Hemisphere" pattern. Even emerging markets such as India and Brazil are relaxing restrictions on crypto trading. The number of countries with bans is decreasing, and the consensus for "regulated development" is getting stronger.

3. Weakness in the real economy makes high-elasticity assets a safe haven for capital. Major global economies are experiencing slowing GDP growth (the US is projected at 2.1% in 2025, the Eurozone at 1.3%), and the investment return rate of the real economy is declining (the global average ROE is less than 8%). Cryptocurrencies, as high-elasticity, high-growth assets, perfectly meet capital's demand for "excess returns." In the past five years, Bitcoin's annualized return reached 38%, Ethereum's 45%, far exceeding traditional assets like stocks and bonds, making the trend of capital "voting with its feet" obvious.

4. The "leading effect" of core cryptocurrencies is irreversible. Bitcoin and Ethereum account for 68% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, forming a winner-takes-all situation—when compliant capital enters, it prioritizes leaders with good liquidity and low risk, rather than small coins. As the market expands, the ceiling for the leaders’ market capitalization will continue to rise (for example, Bitcoin from $1 trillion to $2 trillion, Ethereum from $500 billion to $1 trillion), so the unit price naturally rises as well. #十二月行情展望