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#MacroWatchFedChairPick
With holiday trading volumes thin, market liquidity is
fragile—and the biggest catalyst on the horizon is Trump’s upcoming Fed Chair
nomination. Kevin Hassett is currently the frontrunner, but the market isn't
just betting on a name; it's betting on the 2025 rate path.
Here is how a Hawkish vs. Dovish pick reshapes rate
expectations and what it means for Bitcoin. 👇
The "Hawk" Scenario (e.g., Kevin
Warsh, or a holdover like Powell) If Trump opts for a discipline-first
inflation fighter, the market reprices for "Higher for
Longer."
·
2025 Rates: Expectations for
2025 cuts (currently sitting at ~2-3) evaporate rapidly. We might even see
pricing for a hike if Trump’s tariff policies spike inflation.
·
Macro Impact: The Dollar
strengthens (DXY up), Bond yields climb (10Y breaks 5%), and liquidity
tightens.
·
BTC Impact: 📉
Negative. Bitcoin is the ultimate liquidity trade. If the Fed
is restrictive while the Treasury pumps out debt to fund deficits, risk assets
get squeezed. BTC likely retests the $80k–$90k support range as capital rotates
to cash.
The "Dove/Growth" Scenario (e.g.,
Kevin Hassett, Judy Shelton) If the pick is someone committed to
syncing with the administration's growth goals (and cutting rates despite
inflation), we get a policy put.
·
2025 Rates: The market
aggressively prices in deeper cuts (4+). The narrative shifts to "monetary
easing to offset fiscal stimulus."
·
Macro Impact: The Dollar
weakens, real yields drop, and financial conditions loosen significantly.
·
BTC Impact: 🚀
Bullish. This is the setup for the melt-up. Cheap money +
aggressive deregulation = rocket fuel for risk assets. BTC breaks ATH and looks
toward $150k+ as the premier hedge against currency debasement.
The Wildcard: The "Trump Tariff"
Effect Remember, Trump’s proposed tariffs are inherently inflationary.
·
A Hawk would raise rates to
fight this inflation.
·
A Dove (like Hassett) might
look past the inflation to prioritize GDP growth.
The Bottom Line: Holiday trading
magnifies volatility. The moment the name drops, the 2025 rate curve will snap.
If the pick signals a loose monetary regime to pair with loose fiscal policy,
Bitcoin won't just hold ground—it will rip.
Stay sharp. 🦅
#Bitcoin #Fed