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Maduro's Fall "Releases" $60 Billion in Bitcoin "Shadow Reserves," Reshaping the Global Market Landscape
On January 5th, analyst Serenity revealed that, based on publicly available information, the Maduro regime in Venezuela has accumulated over $60 billion worth of Bitcoin and USDT "shadow reserves," established since 2018 through "gold swaps" and demands for USDT settlement of oil exports to evade sanctions. Previously, due to the failure of Venezuela's "Petro" experiment, the Maduro regime shifted to using USDT as a substitute for oil dollars during crude oil sales. As they realized that USDT still has the function of frozen addresses, Venezuela began converting USDT into Bitcoin. The approximate holdings in Venezuela can be estimated as follows:
Bitcoin accumulated through gold swaps from 2018 to 2020, with gold proceeds converted into Bitcoin at an average price of $5,000, currently valued at about $45 billion to $50 billion;
Bitcoin from oil exports between 2023 and 2025, currently valued at approximately $10 billion to $15 billion;
Bitcoin seized through mining confiscation from 2023 to 2024, about $500 million.
In total, the Bitcoin accumulated by Venezuela from 2018 to 2026 is estimated to be worth approximately $56 billion to $67 billion, with an implied Bitcoin quantity exceeding 660,000 coins, at least 600,000 coins. Even if Maduro is currently detained, it does not mean the United States has full control over these Bitcoins. Major trials surrounding Maduro will unfold, reshaping the global Bitcoin market landscape.