Investment banks shift towards interest rate cuts delay: 95% probability of Fed holding steady in January, where is Bitcoin's macro opportunity?

【Crypto World】Recently, the investment banking circle has once again stirred a “reversal” of rate cut expectations. JPMorgan Chase has changed its stance; previously optimistic about a rate cut in 2026, it now projects it to happen in the third quarter of 2027, and there is even a possibility of a 25 basis point hike. The reason is straightforward—the US employment data is too strong. Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley have also adjusted their expectations, delaying their rate cut timelines.

What does this mean? The most direct reaction from traders: the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates at the January meeting has soared to 95%. In other words, a rate cut is basically off the table.

For the crypto world, the key CPI data is about to be released, which will directly influence macroeconomic developments. Bitcoin is currently stuck at $90,561, as the market anxiously awaits the data to be released, watching whether the market will continue to fluctuate or find a new direction. Every reversal in rate expectations could trigger nerves across the entire market.