A major investor has heavily invested $160,000 betting that the US will definitely acquire Greenland this year. Currently, the probability of this event is 21%.

As a result, the cryptocurrency market, which is a high-risk asset, is the first to be affected, with European stock markets opening lower across the board. However, institutional views generally believe that although this event short-term intensifies risk aversion, its long-term impact is limited.

ING analyst Jane Fli pointed out that while the market has not shown panic, strong risk aversion demand may drive gold to consolidate and rise. Michael Brown from Pepperstone sees this as Trump’s old trick—threats escalate then compromise—leading to short-term volatility, but the reasons for bullish gold are stronger, and buying opportunities in stocks appear on dips.

Additionally, increased uncertainty over the Federal Reserve chair nomination is bearish. Kevin Hassett, the White House economic advisor and director of the National Economic Council, recently publicly stated that Trump is more likely to want his current White House position to continue, a statement interpreted by the market as his basic withdrawal from the race for the next Fed chair.

The market initially expected dovish Hassett to be appointed, but data from Kalshi and Polymarket show his probability has fallen to about 15%–16%, while the likelihood of hawkish Kevin Warsh taking over has surged to about 60%.