Liquidity Exhaustion and Inducement (This Weekend)

Weekend consolidation with low volatility, followed by a decline on Monday and Tuesday.

During the weekend, institutional funds (ETF/US stocks) are closed, leading to thinner liquidity. If the market remains in a high-level sideways consolidation with decreasing volume and does not break through key resistance levels, this is not a sign of "preparing to rise," but rather a signal of buying exhaustion. Major players will exploit low liquidity to maintain a false price appearance, inducing retail investors to go long on Sunday night.

Key signals: Spot trading volume continues to shrink, but open interest (OI) in futures contracts increases instead of decreasing.
Second phase: Multi-level stop-loss hunting (early next week - from 75k to 70k)
First, a drop to 75,000, then a shakeout followed by a decline to 70,000.

As US stocks open on Monday or macro sentiment ferments, major players will initiate the first round of selling, breaking short-term support.
Target level $75,000: This is a dense area of leverage recently. After reaching this level, the market will temporarily move in tandem (Inside Bar consolidation), creating a false impression of stabilization, and luring aggressive bottom-fishers.

Target level $70,000: Subsequently, major players will use this liquidity from "early bottom-fishing" to launch a second decline, pushing directly toward the psychological level of $70,000. This will trigger a large-scale on-chain stop-loss (Capitulation), representing the peak of panic sentiment.
Third phase: Dead cat bounce and trend confirmation (structural breakdown)

A rebound from 70,000 to 80,000, followed by a dead cat bounce, will initiate a new downward wave.
Oversold conditions near $70,000 will trigger technical corrections (short covering + spot order executions).

Rebound target $80,000: This is not a reversal but a confirmation of resistance. The price retests the previous support (S/R Flip). If it cannot sustain above $80,000 with increased volume, a lower high will form on the technical chart.

Outcome: Confirming a trend reversal, officially marking the start of a mid-term correction, followed by a prolonged decline or sharp drop to find the true cycle bottom.