Polymarket's token sale section is essentially a hype meter. The signal is not in the prediction itself, but in how much the prediction deviates. When the public rushes to bet on higher valuations, caution is the wise choice. Historically, "extreme confidence" from the public often signifies the investor's "greatest pain." True win rate over 60% and true win rate only 60% are the same titles. FOmo's sentiment is different; PM needs to stay ahead of the consensus of the public's consensus.