Today's Coffee Market Showing Mixed Signals Amid Brazil Weather and Export Shifts

2026-02-03 16:09:13

The global coffee market today presents a study in contrasts. While arabica futures fell to their lowest point in four weeks, robusta prices surged sharply, reflecting divergent supply pressures across the two primary coffee varieties. This divergence underscores how weather patterns, export flows, and regional production dynamics continue to reshape pricing across today’s coffee market.

Arabica Faces Headwinds Despite Rain Relief in Brazil

March arabica coffee futures declined 0.05 points (0.01%) today, continuing a downtrend that has pushed prices to four-week lows. The primary driver is rain—good news for Brazil’s drought-stressed arabica regions, but bearish for price support. The Weather Channel forecasts daily showers throughout this week in Minas Gerais, Brazil’s largest arabica-growing region, easing concerns about dry conditions that had previously supported higher prices.

This rainfall pattern highlights a key tension in today’s coffee market. While growers benefit from moisture, traders face reduced incentive to hold positions ahead of improved soil conditions. The reduction in weather-related supply concerns has naturally weighted on arabica valuations across futures markets.

Robusta Rallies as Brazil’s Export Decline Creates Scarcity Signals

In sharp contrast, March ICE robusta futures jumped +114 points (+2.89%), driven largely by data showing Brazil’s coffee export volumes have contracted significantly. According to Cecafe, Brazil’s December green coffee exports fell 18.4% to 2.86 million bags. More striking: robusta shipments plummeted 61% year-over-year to just 222,147 bags, signaling tighter near-term availability from the world’s largest coffee producer.

This export decline comes despite rising overall production forecasts. Conab, Brazil’s official crop forecasting agency, recently raised its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags, up from 55.20 million bags estimated in September. Yet the gap between production potential and actual export activity suggests logistics constraints, farmer inventory management, or strategic withholding—all of which support robusta prices in today’s coffee market.

Vietnam’s Growing Robusta Supply Pressures Global Prices

Vietnam’s role as the world’s largest robusta producer adds complexity to price dynamics. Vietnam’s National Statistics Office reported that 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons, reinforcing Vietnam’s export dominance. Looking ahead, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% year-over-year to 1.76 MMT (29.4 million bags)—a four-year high.

The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has suggested output could rise an additional 10% if weather conditions remain favorable. This supply surge creates structural pressure on robusta values despite today’s rally, signaling that price gains may face resistance if Vietnamese exports continue accelerating.

ICE Inventory Movements Mixed on Tighter Holdings

Warehouse inventory trends offer additional insights into today’s coffee market structure. ICE-monitored arabica inventories have been volatile: they fell to a 1.75-year low of 398,645 bags on November 20, then recovered to 461,829 bags last week—still well below average levels. This tightness is generally supportive for prices, though the recent recovery suggests some supply relief is reaching market.

Robusta inventories tell a similar story. ICE robusta holdings fell to a one-year low of 4,012 lots in early December before recovering to 4,450 lots as of today. While recovery signals some inflow, the overall tightness reinforces why robusta has outperformed arabica recently.

Looking Ahead: Production Gains May Weigh on Longer-Term Values

The broader supply picture today’s coffee market must grapple with involves rising global production. The USDA Foreign Agriculture Service projects world coffee production in 2025/26 will increase 2.0% year-over-year to a record 178.848 million bags. However, this masks divergent trends: arabica production is forecast to decline 4.7% to 95.515 million bags, while robusta surges 10.9% to 83.333 million bags.

Brazil specifically is expected to see production decline 3.1% year-over-year to 63 million bags, partly offsetting the global gains from Vietnam and other robusta producers. The USDA also forecasts 2025/26 ending stocks will fall 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in the current year—a modest tightening that suggests prices today’s coffee market reflects are adjusting to a supply picture that remains broadly adequate rather than critically tight.

The International Coffee Organization’s November report indicated global coffee exports for the current marketing year fell just 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, reinforcing the message that supply, while tightening modestly, is not catastrophically constrained. This backdrop explains why today’s coffee market shows mixed signals rather than a uniform directional move.

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