Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% from its all-time high, contrasting sharply with gold, which has repeatedly hit new highs amid geopolitical turmoil. This poses a challenge to its role as a market hedge. Market forecasts show an 11% probability that Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, while the chance of it dropping back to $120,000 is only about 21%. As a sentiment-driven speculative asset, Bitcoin's recent sharp decline during escalating tensions indicates that it has yet to prove itself as a reliable store of wealth like gold, which could increase investors' financial risks.