Is Crypto in a Bear Market Endgame? Analysts Pinpoint $60-68K Bitcoin Floor

Financial analysts at Compass Point believe the crypto bear market is entering its final phase, with specific price levels now functioning as critical support zones. Rather than endless declines, the market appears to be stabilizing around predictable levels where institutional and long-term participants have historically stepped in as buyers. The question isn’t whether a bottom exists—it’s whether we’ve already identified where it is.

Identifying the Bottom: Where Long-Term Holders Found Support

According to Compass Point’s analysis team Ed Engel and Michael Donovan, bitcoin should find substantial support in the $60,000 to $68,000 range, absent a major U.S. equity market crisis. Their baseline scenario places Bitcoin’s eventual floor near $65,000, a level that aligns with historical buying behavior from holders who’ve owned bitcoin for six months or longer.

The data supporting this thesis is compelling: approximately 7% of all bitcoin held by long-term holders was accumulated within this exact $60-68K window during previous market cycles. This concentration of historical cost basis represents what analysts call “accumulated buying conviction”—institutional memory of when sophisticated participants deemed prices attractive enough to accumulate positions.

At the time of writing, BTC recently traded around $67,260, having dipped below $74,500 over recent trading sessions. Bitcoin ETF investors are currently underwater on roughly 50% of their holdings, creating natural resistance at the $81,000-$83,000 levels where capital remains trapped in loss-making positions.

The $70-80K Resistance Gap: Why This Zone Poses Hidden Risk

Between $70,000 and $80,000 lies what Compass Point identifies as an “air pocket”—a price zone with minimal structural support and psychological buying interest. Less than 1% of long-term holder supply was acquired at these levels, meaning there’s little conviction to defend against selling pressure in this range.

This structural vacuum creates asymmetric risk. Bitcoin can fall through this zone with relatively limited institutional resistance, making it a dangerous territory for traders who believe support automatically exists at round numbers. The lack of accumulated cost basis here means fewer buyers emerge automatically as prices decline through this band.

ETF Redemptions and Market Structure: What Could Push Bitcoin Lower

Recent capital flows paint an additional picture of market stress. Bitcoin ETFs have experienced approximately $3 billion in net outflows since mid-January, reflecting investor capitulation and fund liquidation. When over half of ETF assets are underwater, redemption requests tend to accelerate, creating forced selling that can overwhelm organic buy-side interest.

This dynamic creates a feedback loop: outflows generate selling pressure, selling pressure drives prices lower, lower prices trigger more redemptions. The cycle only breaks when prices stabilize at levels where either new money enters or existing holders stop selling. The $60-68K range represents Compass Point’s thesis for where this stabilization could occur.

When Extreme Risk-Off Events Matter: Lessons from 2022

Any breakdown below the $60-68K floor would require more dramatic catalysts—essentially the crypto-equivalent of a “perfect storm.” Historical bear markets have typically bottomed below the average cost basis for all buyers across bitcoin’s entire history, currently estimated around $55,000.

However, breaching that level demands extreme conditions. During 2022’s severe downturn, it took a combination of equity bear market conditions plus multiple high-profile bankruptcies (FTX, Three Arrows Capital) to drive prices below the historical average. Without similar systemic shocks, the $55,000 level remains theoretical rather than probable in the near-term outlook.

The key insight from Compass Point’s analysis: a crypto bear market can certainly extend lower, but doing so requires validation from broader financial system stress, not just crypto-specific weakness.

Beyond Bitcoin: Crypto Bear Market Amid Expanding Regional Adoption

Interestingly, while pricing pressure persists in developed markets, emerging regions tell a different story. Latin America’s crypto transaction volume surged 60% annually to reach $730 billion in 2025, driven primarily by users seeking payment functionality and cross-border transfer capabilities beyond traditional banking networks.

Brazil leads by transaction size while Argentina increasingly dominates adoption discussions, particularly for stablecoin use cases enabling international payments and PayPal fund receipts. Stablecoins specifically are driving practical utility adoption rather than speculative positioning. This regional divergence suggests that even within a crypto bear market cycle, underlying demand fundamentals remain intact in certain markets.

The crypto bear market appears to be consolidating rather than collapsing, with structural price levels now emerging as boundaries for capitulation.