卓创资讯: Cautious macro sentiment; electrolytic aluminum fundamentals pressure the market to maintain range-bound fluctuations

The spot aluminum market remained volatile before and after the Spring Festival, with a narrowing fluctuation range. As of February 24, the Feibao A00 spot aluminum price was 23,390 yuan/ton, up 0.95% compared to before the holiday. The main reasons are: 1. Macroeconomic momentum cooled down before and after the Spring Festival, and the previously overheated precious metals, copper, and even capital sentiment showed moderation around the holiday, weakening the driving force for aluminum; overseas tariff adjustments during the holiday were also relatively mild. 2. Supply-side pressure increased, aluminum plant operations remained stable, and the aluminum water ratio dropped to its lowest point of the year before and after the holiday. While aluminum ingot supply increased, downstream demand was constrained by high aluminum prices, leading to reduced stocking. Social inventory accumulated significantly, reaching a five-year high after the holiday, with total stocks expected to rise to around 1.3 million tons. On the demand side, with downstream resumption of work, sectors such as automotive, electricity, and photovoltaics are expected to perform steadily. In the short term, macroeconomic focus should be on the US stance regarding geopolitics and tariffs, while fundamentals should monitor downstream resumption progress. Aluminum prices are likely to fluctuate within the range of 23,000-24,000 yuan/ton. (Zhuochuang Information)