Global News | The three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with a 97.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged

【U.S. Stock Indices】

On Tuesday, March 3, Eastern Time, the three major U.S. stock indices all closed lower, with the S&P 500 down 0.94% to 6,816.63; the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.83% to 48,501.27; and the Nasdaq down 1.02% to 22,516.69.

【U.S. Bonds】

On March 3, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the yield on the 2-year Treasury, most sensitive to Federal Reserve policy rates, was 3.51%.

【Popular U.S. Stocks】

Among popular stocks, Nvidia fell 1.33%, Apple declined 0.37%, Google A dropped 0.96%, Google C fell 0.91%, Microsoft rose 1.35%, Amazon increased 0.16%, TSMC dropped 4.28%, Meta gained 0.23%, Tesla fell 2.70%, Super Micro Semiconductor declined 3.86%, and Intel decreased 5.28%.

【Global Indices】

【Chinese Indices】

On March 3, overnight Hang Seng Tech Index futures fell 2.16%, Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index declined 3.34%, and FTSE China A50 Index dropped 0.14%.

【Chinese Concept Stocks】

In popular Chinese concept stocks, Tencent Holdings (HK) fell 0.68%, Alibaba dropped 4.87%, Pinduoduo declined 2.05%, NetEase rose 0.32%, Baidu fell 3.93%, Ctrip gained 0.43%, Li Auto decreased 2.90%, Xpeng Motors dropped 6.62%, and NIO declined 2.75%.

【Forex and Commodities】

【Global News】

The probability of the Federal Reserve holding interest rates steady in March is 97.4%

According to CME “FedWatch”: The chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 2.6%, with a 97.4% chance of holding rates steady. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut by April is 14.4%, with an 85.3% chance of no change, and a 0.3% chance of a 50 basis point cut. By June, the probability of a total 25 basis point cut is 37.1%.

News Corp and Meta Platforms reach multi-year AI licensing agreement, lasting at least three years, with Meta paying up to $50 million annually for content licensing for training and output

News Corp and Meta Platforms have reached a multi-year AI licensing agreement, expected to last at least three years, with Meta paying up to $50 million per year to license content for training and content generation.

Fed’s Kashkari: If inflation cools, it may be appropriate to cut rates once or twice later this year

Federal Reserve’s Kashkari stated that the U.S. economy does not need restrictive policies and he wants to avoid repeating the “temporary” misjudgment; before the Iran conflict, inflation was trending positively, but now the conflict clouds the outlook for monetary policy; with the war looming, the Fed can wait and see. He also mentioned that if inflation cools, it might be appropriate to cut rates once or twice later this year.

OpenAI launches GPT 5.3 real-time website

OpenAI has launched GPT 5.3 real-time, now available to all ChatGPT users. GPT 5.2 real-time will be available to paying users in the model selector’s legacy models section for three months, and will be discontinued on June 3.

OpenAI releases GPT 5.3 Instant

OpenAI: GPT 5.2 Instant will be available to paid users for three months, accessible under the legacy models in the model selector, and will cease service on June 3.

Google launches GEMINI 3.1 FLASH-LITE model

Google announced that the 3.1 Flash Lite model is priced at $0.25 per 1 million input tokens and $1.50 per 1 million output tokens. Starting today, 3.1 Flash-Lite will be available in preview via the Gemini API in Google AI Studio for developers, and through Vertex AI for enterprise customers.

Fed’s Williams: It’s too early to assess how the Iran conflict will impact the global economy

Fed’s Williams said it’s difficult to compare the Iran conflict with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as the persistence of oil shocks remains uncertain. It’s too early to make a broad assessment of how the Iran conflict will affect the global economy.

Fed’s Schnabel: Large fiscal stimulus measures are expected in 2026. We will watch the development of global political events

Fed’s Schnabel stated that significant fiscal stimulus measures are expected in 2026, and we will observe how global political developments unfold.

OpenAI agrees to strengthen recently signed contracts with the Pentagon

OpenAI and the Pentagon have agreed to strengthen their recently signed contracts.

South Korean AI chip startup Rebellions aims to challenge Nvidia’s market position with IPO this year

AI chip startup Rebellions has hired JPMorgan Chase as the global lead underwriter for its Seoul IPO, paving the way for Korea’s most anticipated tech stock debut. According to sources, the company plans to file for an IPO in the second half of this year, targeting a listing by late 2026 or early 2027. Rebellions focuses on AI accelerators optimized for data center inference workloads (running AI models). By emphasizing cost-effectiveness and energy efficiency, it aims to challenge Nvidia’s dominant market position. In September 2025, Rebellions raised $250 million in Series C funding, valuing the company at $1.4 billion. Hiring JPMorgan Chase highlights its strategy to attract global institutional investors and domestic capital. A successful IPO will provide fresh capital to expand R&D, deepen manufacturing partnerships, and solidify its position in the rapidly evolving AI chip market.