"1011 Insider Whale" Agent: The US-Iran war could trigger a 15% oil supply gap, far exceeding historical levels, putting upward pressure on oil prices

Odaily Planet Daily reports that Garrett Jin, an agent of the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated on the X platform that there is a clear correlation between historical oil supply shortages and rising oil prices: a supply gap of about 7% in 1973 drove oil prices up by approximately 300%, a 5% gap in 1979 led to about a 150% increase, and a 6% gap in 1990 resulted in roughly a 130% rise. Currently, the potential supply shock around the Strait of Hormuz is about 15%, far higher than historical cases. Most institutional models assume this shock will last only “a few days to a few weeks,” but almost no models expect the shock to last several months. In reality, once the market’s consensus on the duration is broken, more long positions may be forced into the market, further driving up oil prices.