Caixin Survey | February CPI Year-on-Year Growth May Expand to 0.9%, PPI Year-on-Year Decline Continues to Narrow

[Caixin] The 2026 Spring Festival is noticeably later than in 2025, leading to an increase in food and service prices in February. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate will rebound significantly; international commodity prices such as oil and non-ferrous metals are rising, narrowing the year-on-year decline of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and maintaining positive month-on-month growth.

Recently, Caixin surveyed 13 domestic and foreign institutions, and economists generally believe that the February CPI year-on-year growth rate will rise, with an average forecast of 0.9%, higher than January’s 0.7 percentage points, with a forecast range of 0.4% to 1.3%.

Zhang Yu, Chief Economist at Huachuang Securities, expects the February CPI year-on-year to increase by 0.9%. She believes that the significant improvement in the February CPI is mainly driven by the offset of the Spring Festival and rising oil prices, which is a “mirror” of the decline in January. Specifically, the Spring Festival holiday falls in the second half of February, increasing travel and entertainment demand while labor supply decreases, leading to higher prices for related services. Meanwhile, the 2025 Spring Festival has ended, causing prices to fall, with a lower base period; additionally, driven by international oil prices, domestic gasoline retail prices have increased by about 3.2%.