CICC: Overseas power supply and demand contradictions are prominent; Chinese manufacturers are ushering in an accelerated overseas expansion window

CITIC Securities APP has learned that China International Capital Corporation (CICC) released a research report stating that overseas data centers are facing a “power shortage” dilemma, with queue times in some congested regions of Europe and America reaching over 7 years. It has been observed that grid capacity is increasingly influencing capital flows, with Nordic, Southern European, and emerging markets attracting the attention of major developers. Meanwhile, in the US and Europe, some areas of the FLAP-D market are shifting from optional to mandatory backup power, and various new power supply solutions are being explored simultaneously. The supply and demand imbalance overseas is prominent, and Chinese manufacturers are entering a window of accelerated overseas expansion, capturing high-elasticity market opportunities.

CICC’s main viewpoints are as follows:

Power Supply Side: On-site power supply is the trend, with breakthroughs in autonomous gas turbines. Gas turbines are the mainstream solution for on-site power, with global orders and prices rising by 2025. Overseas leading manufacturers are experiencing supply shortages, with lead times exceeding three years, making it difficult to meet rapid power supply demands. This presents market breakthrough opportunities for Chinese complete machine manufacturers. Leading company Dongfang Electric’s autonomous G50 gas turbine achieved its first export last year. Additionally, various forms such as SOFC, SMR, and geothermal systems each have their own characteristics. The combination of “self-supply power + grid” is viewed as a highly feasible future direction.

Grid Side: Global power cycle, China’s transformer exports see high growth. As AIDC scale increases to hundreds of megawatts and connection points rise to high voltage levels requiring dedicated substations, slow approval processes in the West have long restricted effective transmission development, leading to a supply gap in core equipment transformers. In 2025, China’s transformer exports are expected to reach a new high. Chinese companies with complete industrial chains and rapid delivery capabilities are expected to continue expanding their market share.

Data Center Side: SST is expected to help AIDC achieve grid-friendly operation. On one hand, SST adapts to computing power coordination scenarios, working with energy storage systems to provide auxiliary services such as peak shaving and frequency regulation, enabling flexible grid interaction. On the other hand, SST relies on power electronic technology for rapid response and active control, smoothing the impact of AI model training on the grid. Chinese manufacturers with strong grid understanding and market channels are expected to stand out.

Risks

AIDC development falling short of expectations, changes in international trade policies, and shifts in new technological routes.