Huatai Securities: Wind power demand in 2025 exceeds expectations; high prosperity in 2026 is expected to continue

Huatai Securities Research Report states that domestic installations may continue to be highly active in 2026, with the contribution of offshore wind expected to increase. Considering that the wind turbine bidding volume in 2025 remains high, combined with nearly 9GW of offshore wind projects already underway but not yet connected to the grid, we forecast that in 2026, domestic new installations will reach 130GW, including 120GW onshore and 10GW offshore. Looking ahead, supported by new demands such as direct green power connection and old equipment replacement, along with the gradual expansion of deep-sea wind, it is expected that wind power installations in China will maintain steady growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.

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Huatai | Power & New Energy: 2025 Wind Power Demand Surpassed Expectations, High Activity Expected to Continue in 2026

Key Points

2025 Review: Onshore wind installations exceeded expectations, offshore wind deployment accelerated

Onshore wind installations surpassed early expectations, offshore wind demand needs to be released. According to CWEA’s “2025 China Wind Power Hoisting Capacity Statistics Brief,” China’s new installed capacity in 2025 reached 130.8GW, a 49.9% increase year-over-year, including 125.2GW onshore (+53.4%), higher than CWEA’s initial forecast (95-100GW). This was mainly due to higher wind power mechanism electricity prices and developers favoring renewable energy projects; offshore wind reached 5.6GW, flat year-over-year, below initial expectations (10-15GW), mainly because some projects are progressing slowly. The trend of larger turbines continued, with the average capacity of newly added turbines in 2025 at 7.2MW, up 18.3% YoY, including 7.1MW onshore (+20.1%), driven by large-scale base projects, with 24.8% of turbines being 10MW or above (+19.6 percentage points); offshore turbines averaged 10.1MW, up 1.4%.

Wind turbine market competition continued to improve. In 2025, 10 OEMs achieved new installations, down 3 from the previous year, with a CR7 (top 7 companies) market share of 91.8%, up 1.9 percentage points YoY. Looking at different scenarios, onshore market concentration increased, with CR7 at 92.2%, up 1.2 percentage points; offshore wind market is dominated by a few players, with Goldwind adding 2.1GW, accounting for 37.3%, up 17.7 percentage points, mainly due to the installation and grid connection of projects like Three Gorges Dafeng and Guoxin Dafeng; Mingyang Smart added 1.4GW, accounting for 24.4%, down 6.9 percentage points, mainly due to slower-than-expected project progress; Sany Heavy Energy achieved breakthroughs in offshore wind turbine shipments, with 0.16GW of new installations.

Offshore wind exports accelerated, with overseas production becoming an important option. In 2025, China’s wind turbine exports reached 7.7GW, up 48.9% YoY, with Goldwind and Envision Energy exporting 3.9GW and 2.1GW respectively, accounting for 49.9% and 27.6%. Overseas manufacturing bases became key hubs for wind turbine exports, with Envision Energy’s India plant, Sany Heavy Energy’s India plant, and Goldwind’s Brazil plant producing 2.7GW, 0.2GW, and 0.1GW respectively.

2026 Outlook: Continued high activity in installations, optimistic about OEMs + offshore wind exports + core components

We expect domestic wind power installations to remain highly active in 2026, with offshore wind’s contribution likely to increase. Given that wind turbine bidding volume in 2025 remains high and nearly 9GW of offshore projects are underway but not yet connected, we forecast that in 2026, China’s new installations will reach 130GW, including 120GW onshore and 10GW offshore. Looking further, supported by new demands such as direct green power connection and old equipment replacement, along with the gradual expansion of deep-sea wind, wind power installations during the 14th Five-Year Plan are expected to grow steadily.

We remain optimistic about profit recovery for OEMs, offshore wind exports, and the leverage effect in core component manufacturing:

1. OEM profit recovery: Rising prices and delivery ratios for onshore wind turbines, along with increased offshore and export shares, are expected to support profit recovery; the hydrogen and ammonia business is opening a second growth curve.

2. Offshore wind exports: Recent geopolitical conflicts have disrupted energy supply in Europe. Offshore wind, as a high-quality local resource, benefits from government subsidies and support, likely leading to accelerated demand release; Europe’s domestic monopile capacity shortages may spill over to domestic manufacturers.

3. Core component manufacturers’ leverage: We estimate tight supply-demand for main shaft bearings and casting main shafts, with capacity releases from leading component companies supporting continued performance growth.

Risk factors: Wind power demand underperforming expectations, overseas market expansion delays, increased market competition, etc.

(Source: First Financial)