IEA proposes releasing the largest amount of oil reserves in history

On March 11, it was reported that the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed releasing the largest-ever oil reserves to suppress the soaring crude oil prices caused by the conflict between the US and Iran. The IEA suggested releasing over 182 million barrels of oil, and relevant countries are expected to decide on the proposal by Wednesday.

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EIA: Iran War Disrupts Supply, Brent Oil to Stay Above $95 for the Next Two Months

On Tuesday, March 10, U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) stated in its monthly report that due to the Iran war disrupting oil supply, Brent crude oil prices are expected to remain above $95 per barrel for the next two months. Afterward, as supply recovers, prices may fall to around $70 per barrel by the end of the year.

In its “Short-Term Energy Outlook” on Tuesday, the EIA pointed out that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping choke point, has severely impacted oil transportation.

The Strait of Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean and is the only waterway into the Persian Gulf. It accounts for nearly one-third of global seaborne crude oil transportation and one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation.

After the outbreak of war, Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which will further reduce oil production in the Middle East in the coming weeks due to transportation disruptions.

On Monday, reports indicated that Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil exporter, has begun reducing oil production, joining other Gulf producers like Iraq and Kuwait to cut output amid transportation restrictions.

The EIA stated that as shipping gradually resumes, these production cuts will be eased over time. Once oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal, global oil supply will still exceed demand.

As of press time, Brent crude futures traded above $88 per barrel. So far this month, Brent crude futures have increased by approximately 21%.

The EIA has significantly raised its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast by 37% to $79 per barrel compared to last month. The agency also expects Brent prices to fall below $80 per barrel in the third quarter of this year.

Additionally, the EIA has raised its US fuel price forecasts: retail gasoline prices are expected to be about $3.34 per gallon, up 14.7% from previous forecasts; diesel prices are expected to be around $4.12 per gallon, approximately 20.1% higher than earlier predictions.

“Although we expect most of the gasoline price increases in the coming weeks to pass through to retail prices, the normalization of refining and retail margins will be slower. As a result, prices in the second quarter will still face upward pressure, but the pace of increase will lag behind the initial price shocks,” the EIA stated in the report.

The EIA also said that rising oil prices will stimulate increased U.S. crude oil production, with an average of 13.61 million barrels per day in 2026 and rising to 13.83 million barrels per day in 2027.

In comparison, the EIA previously forecasted 13.60 million barrels per day for 2026 and 13.32 million barrels per day for 2027.

(Source: Jiemian News)