Recently, there hasn't been much new macro news; it's still a day influenced by geopolitical conflicts. During the day, things looked somewhat positive, with reports that the US and Iran might be considering a ceasefire, and the Strait of Hormuz also saw some staged traffic. But by the evening, the situation continued to escalate. On one hand, there are suspicions that Iran has laid mines in the Strait of Hormuz; on the other hand, reports claimed that the US escorted oil ships through the Strait, but in reality, no escort took place. It's been like this day after day.

The war has been ongoing for nearly two weeks now. Iran's resilience might surpass US expectations. I checked prediction websites regarding the probability of a US-Iran ceasefire: before April, it's only 33%, and before May, just over half. This suggests that the next half month may still see a volatile market, and at least the Strait of Hormuz needs to stabilize for a phase of relief.

However, today Trump did request Israel to cease attacks on Iran's energy infrastructure. This is the first time since the conflict began that the US has made such a demand to Israel, which could be the start of easing the tense situation between the two sides.

Looking at BTC data, trading volume has decreased, turnover rate has increased, and investor sentiment is poor, especially with the ongoing war and the Strait of Hormuz still not open. Oil prices are likely to rise, and market volatility is normal. It's a bit difficult to expect any clear resolution in the short term.

But the chip structure remains quite healthy, with no signs of panic selling. Early investors haven't reacted strongly to the current prices. As long as there are no further negative news, I personally think the chances of a significant decline are not high.