#原油价格回落 #伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷 What happens to crude oil after the 3.9 shock? Ordinary people should immediately stay away from leverage!

The crude oil futures market triggered by the US-Iran conflict turned March 9 into a nightmare for all traders. WTI surged violently from 91 to 119, a 30% spike that crushed shorts; then Trump announced a ceasefire + G7 plans to release 300-400 million barrels from reserves, causing prices to plummet straight down to 80, a 32% crash that wiped out longs. Intraday volatility exceeded 40%, with both longs and shorts exploding under 10x leverage, making the market a “meat grinder.” This extreme market clearly shows: geopolitically driven oil prices are never a game for ordinary people.

In the short term, oil prices will enter a wide-range consolidation phase, with a core zone between $75 and $95. The cooling of the conflict and the expectation of reserve releases quickly squeezed out the premium, with WTI falling back to around 86 on March 10, as the market shifted from extreme panic to rationality. However, the shipping risk through the Strait of Hormuz has not been fully resolved, Iran’s production capacity remains damaged, and Middle Eastern oil facilities are still under threat, so geopolitical premiums will not disappear entirely. G7 reserve releases are a short-term painkiller, but cannot fundamentally address the supply gap. As long as conflicts persist, oil prices will rebound rapidly.

The medium-term trend is entirely tied to the evolution of the conflict, with three scenarios:

1. Baseline scenario (probability 60%): The conflict remains controllable, the Strait gradually reopens, and oil prices fall back to $80-90, returning to fundamental supply and demand. Global crude oil is already in a loose cycle, and non-OPEC capacity increases cannot offset Middle East production cuts. After the reserves are released, the premium will quickly dissipate.
2. Confrontation scenario (probability 30%): The conflict continues for 1-3 months, with intermittent blockade of shipping lanes, causing oil prices to fluctuate between $90 and $110 with continued high volatility.
3. Escalation scenario (probability 10%): The conflict expands, facilities are heavily damaged, and oil prices surge to $120-150, triggering an energy crisis, but this scenario is highly unlikely.

In the long run, fundamentals do not support permanently high prices. Before the conflict, global oil supply surplus was about 2-3 million barrels per day, with a price center around $70-80. Geopolitical shocks are short-term pulses; once the situation stabilizes, reserves are released, and OPEC+ increases production, prices will eventually revert to fundamentals, with a significant correction being highly probable.

The most important lesson from this market is not the rise and fall, but the deadly nature of leverage. With 10x leverage, a 10% move can wipe out your position. The extreme 3.9 event shows that no one who chased longs or shorts was spared. The only ones making money are those who took early positions with low leverage at the start of the conflict; latecomers are all cannon fodder. The market always rewards the first to “try the crab,” harvesting all followers.

A word of advice to all ordinary people: do not leverage, do not leverage, and absolutely do not leverage! Crude oil has entered a phase of high volatility driven by geopolitics and policy interventions, with unpredictable trends and uncontrollable risks. Instead of being repeatedly liquidated in futures, it’s better to stay away from high-risk assets and protect your principal above all.

In the coming weeks, keep an eye on three signals: progress in US-Iran talks, the status of Hormuz shipping, and the pace of G7 reserve releases. But no matter how it unfolds, ordinary people should never touch leverage — in the face of absolute risk, all predictions are powerless.