This week experienced extreme volatility on the macro level, with intense geopolitical risks and policy interventions engaging in a fierce tug-of-war, leading to a reversal in crypto market sentiment.

Geopolitical tensions and oil price shocks: The core driver this week is the Middle East situation. Although conflicts continue, the Trump administration demanded Israel cease attacks on Iranian oil facilities and signaled that "the war will end," which directly caused a historic reversal in international oil prices on Tuesday, soaring on Monday and then plummeting over 20% intraday on Tuesday.

Policy intervention expectations: The International Energy Agency (IEA) plans to hold an emergency meeting to discuss the largest-ever release of strategic oil reserves. This move further suppressed inflation expectations and eased market fears of "stagflation."

Dollar and US stocks: The US dollar index slightly rebounded to around 98.94. The three major US stock indices showed mixed gains and losses but with narrowed volatility. The market remains cautious ahead of the CPI data release.

Today’s focus (March 11): US February CPI data will be released tonight. This is a key clue for the Fed’s next interest rate move. Currently, the market is extremely sensitive to any inflation data amid high uncertainty.

Policy outlook: ECB President Lagarde explicitly rejected preset interest rate paths. Markets are still digesting how major central banks are responding under "high volatility."

The macro and crypto linkage this week is unusually clear: Middle East tensions ease → crude oil plunges → inflation expectations cool → Fed pressure eases → risk asset appetite recovers. This is also the core reason why Bitcoin can rebound alongside US stocks once macro conditions clarify.

As of March 11, BTC is fiercely oscillating around the $70,000-$71,000 level. Yesterday completed a classic "dip-rebound" shakeout, bouncing from around $68,300, reaching a high of $71,700 before a slight pullback.

Support levels: The first support is in the $69,200-$69,500 range (yesterday’s test confirmation); core strong support at $68,300 and $65,500 (channel lower boundary and a warning line for large leverage liquidations).

Resistance levels: The strongest resistance is in the $71,700-$72,200 zone. This is the upper boundary of the 4-hour channel and the key dividing line between bulls and bears. Only if the daily candle closes firmly above $72,200 can the space toward $75,000 open up.

Technically, MACD shows signs of a golden cross after recent rebound, indicating momentum is building, but price remains constrained by the 50-day EMA, and overall still within the consolidation zone of $65,900-$72,600.

Ethereum (ETH) technical outlook: Following the rally but showing fatigue

Current price and pattern: ETH is oscillating in the $2,030-$2,050 range, weaker than Bitcoin. Yesterday’s movement was also a dip followed by a rebound, with lows at $1,987 and highs at $2,087, demonstrating support at the $2,000 psychological level.

Support levels: $2,000-$2,008 is a critical lifeline for bulls; if broken, it may test the extreme support zone at $1,986 or even $1,740 (corresponding to large liquidation points).

Resistance levels: The first resistance is at $2,087-$2,108; to reverse the downward trend, a volume breakout above $2,130 (a dense short zone) and the channel top at $2,148 is necessary.

Strength vs. weakness: ETH/BTC exchange rate continues to weaken, indicating funds still prioritize Bitcoin as the primary asset for macro risk hedging. ETH’s RSI is around 48, lacking strong upward momentum.

Summary: The current market is led by "geopolitical easing + policy rescue" causing a brief rebound, but technically, there is no full reversal yet. Tonight’s US CPI data will determine whether the rebound is a true breakout or a false move. Until BTC firmly breaks above $72,200, maintaining a range-bound mindset is more prudent, with Ethereum rotation as an alternative.

Specific short-term trading suggestions are as follows:

Buy on Bitcoin dips around $69,150, targeting $70,000, with a stop at $68,300.

Buy on Ethereum dips at $2,000, with a target of $2,100, and a stop at $1,950.