#Gate广场五月交易分享

BTC has regained above $80k, but on-chain activity has dropped to a two-year low

Bitcoin today strongly broke through $80,500, reaching a new high in this rebound, but one indicator is worth noting, Santiment data shows wallet activity hitting a two-year low, with only 531k wallets transferring daily, and 203k newly created.

🔍 Core Contradiction Analysis

‌1. The contrast between on-chain calmness and price enthusiasm‌

Active addresses sharply decreased: Currently, about 531k wallets transfer daily, with only 203k new wallets created (down more than 40% from the 2024 peak), the lowest level since March 2024.
‌Trading depth shrinks‌: Despite BTC breaking above $80k, on-chain trading volume has not expanded accordingly. During the nearly 5-week price increase of 22%, on-chain participation remained subdued.

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2. The market essence behind the divergence‌

Stock game characteristics: The rally is mainly driven by leverage in the futures market (shorts liquidated $359 million within 24 hours), rather than new capital entering. Spot ETF weekly net inflows are $630 million, but mainly due to institutional rebalancing rather than incremental funds.

‌Increasing concentration of holdings‌: Medium wallets (100-1000 BTC) inflow to exchanges has fallen to 2023 levels, while long-term holders’ share of holdings has risen to a historic high, indicating chips are accelerating to be concentrated among whales.

3. Reduced selling pressure favors upward movement?

The inflow of medium wallets in Binance is at a 2023 low, indicating that selling pressure is actually very small.

⚠️ Hidden Risks in the Divergence

‌Liquidity trap‌:

BTC reserves on exchanges have decreased for 7 consecutive weeks (a total outflow of 105k BTC), but buy-side depth remains insufficient. If a sudden sell-off occurs, a liquidity crisis similar to the Luna collapse in 2022 could reemerge.

‌Leverage bubble buildup‌:

Perpetual contract funding rates are low, but demand for bullish contracts above $80,000 in the options market has surged, with open interest in derivatives approaching historical peaks, indicating the market is overly reliant on leverage to sustain the rally.

‌Stagnation of new ecosystem growth‌:

The shrinking number of new wallets reflects stagnating user growth. On-chain application indicators such as DeFi locked value and NFT trading volume have not broken previous highs, indicating the current rally lacks fundamental ecosystem support.

📉 Market Outlook and Strategies

Scenario 1: Fake breakout attracting buy (probability 60%)

‌Trigger condition‌: Unable to hold above $80,500 within 3 days, with a single exchange deposit >5,000 BTC

‌Target‌: Quickly fall back to $74,680 (April low), with an extreme test of $65,000 (institutional ETF cost zone)

‌Strategy‌: Use high-position put options, with a stop-loss at $81,300

Scenario 2: Short squeeze rally (probability 40%)

‌Trigger condition‌: Weekly close above $82,000, Coinbase shows withdrawals of ten-thousand BTC level

‌Target‌: Short-term push to $85,000, but strong resistance exists in the $88,000–$95,000 range

‌Strategy‌: Combine spot holdings with protective put options to avoid naked long positions

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On-chain monitoring focus‌:

Whale dormant address anomalies (monitor wallets inactive for >10 years)

bn/Cbase large transaction temperature difference (currently, Cbase daily inflow once reached 8,500 BTC)