Encryption Casino: Why Most MEME Players Are Doomed to Lose Money

Author: Mohamed Allam, Messariprotocol research analyst; Translation: 0xjs@Golden Finance

A few weeks ago, I wrote an article titled 'Stick to Your Investment Thesis or You'll Lose Money.' Oh my, it feels like no one has an investment thesis - most importantly, everyone is losing money. If this is your first cryptocurrency cycle, welcome to the casino. If you try to gamble against the house, you will lose. Ahem, $TRUMP, $LIBRA, $JAILSTOOL, and $CAR. These are just mainstream memes, but if you're really in the trenches, you'll know this is just the first layer of the onion.

Let me say it again: if you think of cryptocurrency as a casino, it will treat you like a gambler. **

In casinos, one in five players will win money at the jackpot machine. This means that the vast majority of people are losers – even "winners" who don't really win if you count how much money they lost before winning the lottery. Let's say you bet a bunch of meme coins, lose money again and again, and finally hit the jackpot. What will happen? You think you're special. You think you've cracked the code. But in reality, your win is just an exception, and if you keep playing, the casino will take the money.

• The casino attracts you with free buffets and the dream of financial freedom. Memecoin entices you with airdrops, 10,000x dreams, wife-swapping returns, and shiny Rolex watches. Casinos make rules that let you play until they decide to spit you out. Twitter KOLs send memes to the moon and send you into the cold. ** When you're unlucky, the casino will peddle you the fantasy of a "big win at once". Memecoin has the same effect, but is less likely to succeed. **

Mathematics - Why You Might Lose

Now, I'm a math person, so let's talk about the law of large numbers in plain English.

The law states that as the number of trials increases, your results will get closer and closer to the expected average. In gambling, the expected average is the amount of money you lose. Casinos and gambling games are built around this principle. The more you play, the more your personal results lean towards the house edge.

You can think of it this way: if you flip a coin 10 times, you may get 7 heads and 3 tails - anomalies occur in small samples. But if you flip the coin 1,000 times, the result will be closer to 50/50. The same logic applies to betting on meme coins. You may be lucky once or twice, but after enough trades, the expected result will return to reality. And the reality is, Twitter KOLs are becoming richer, while you are burdened with massive losses.

So, how can a winner win?

1. Early entry - but we must face the reality that even the smartest people cannot leave on time, and early entry is almost impossible.

2. Become an insider trader - despicable, shameful, not good.

3. Becoming a KOL to cause trouble is also despicable and bad.

So, in short, this is a game of luck, unless you meet the above criteria, but you may not meet them, including me.

That said, the stigma of cryptocurrency needs to change. Memecoins almost never make you rich. If you truly care about this field, then go study and formulate a paper - a real paper.

Making 10,000 times profit within a few hours is not a rational idea. Making 2-4 times profit in 2-5 years is a rational idea. If you understand this, you can make money (of course, it's NFA). Don't let the Meme cycle consume you.

Will Meme Coin disappear? No.

Crime peak has arrived? Yes. And most likely forever.

But if you want crypto to succeed in this gray world, you need to be prepared and understand what you're investing in.