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The moment my account surpassed eight figures, I remained surprisingly calm, immediately uninstalled the trading software and stayed in the mountains for three days. My current life is all about maximizing simplicity—holding B3 as the core position, selecting three contract opportunities each week, and the rest of the time is just waiting—waiting for the trend direction to confirm, waiting for the price to return to key levels, waiting for the market to give clear signals.
Bitcoin is the commander of this game, but its direction is never determined by candlestick charts. FOMC minutes, BlackRock’s holdings movements, social media posts from key figures—these are the real market movers. I’ve suffered countless losses here, and I’ve learned one thing: three days before the Federal Reserve’s monthly meeting, you must proactively reduce your holdings because the volatility in the news-driven market is most likely to cut out slow-reacting traders.
USBT’s off-exchange premium is a true barometer of market sentiment. As long as the premium exceeds 0.5%, it indicates that smart money is accelerating its shift to USDT for risk aversion—at this point, it’s time to run. When the premium returns to around 0.1%, it’s the right time to gradually re-enter positions. Because of this logic, I fully exited during the sudden crash in January 2025.
Technical charts can deceive, but on-chain data does not. Large outflows of BTC from exchanges indicate that big players are quietly accumulating for the long term; conversely, a sudden influx of large BTC amounts into exchanges usually signals an impending sell-off. While retail traders are still chasing the market up and down, whales on the chain have already completed their low buys and high sells.
Futures trading must be approached with spot trading mindset to survive. Many treat it as gambling, but I see it as an enhanced version of spot positions. The core rule is simple: only participate in instruments with genuine trading volume, never cut corners on stop-losses, and keep your positions controllable.
That logic of the USBT premium is absolutely correct; I hadn't thought it could be used this way before.
I must agree with the point about reducing positions before the Federal Reserve meeting; only after losing money did I understand.
On-chain data really doesn't lie. While retail investors are still watching K-line charts, big players have already exited.
The phrase "using spot trading mindset for contracts" is something I need to engrain in my mind.
Smart money is just smart money; retail investors are always a step behind. The Federal Reserve reducing positions in the past three days was brilliant.
USBT premium as a weather vane—this perspective is fresh. I'll try it next time.
On-chain data indeed doesn't lie, but the problem is I can't understand those address flows haha.
The biggest risk with contracts is losing control of the positions. Going all-in and losing everything is not worth it; stability like an old dog is better.
If I hadn't uninstalled the software, I probably would have lost another eight figures already. Self-discipline is truly more valuable than technical skills.
Now it's just about waiting, waiting, waiting—until I become numb.