Lavish funerals for comrades, nothing strange, accustomed to it.

This morning, BTC investor and Kraken exchange market director Dan Held published a post that is very different from his previous consistent stance:

Translate this:

“Bitcoin is the air software of a Ponzi scheme, only money launderers and criminals would use it, and it also harms the environment.”

I have returned to the fiat currency system.

Fiat currency is completely trustworthy, subject to comprehensive control, and will return power to banks and governments that always prioritize our interests.

As soon as the post was released, many netizens, especially his fans, were stunned and didn't know which performance he was putting on.

Someone cautiously replied in the comments: This should be a post for April 1st, April Fools' Day, right?

But take a look at the calendar. It is now September 15, 2025. It is not April Fool's Day.

Looking at this post, this expression, this tone, if it were on the Zhihu platform, it would definitely belong to that kind of post that makes it hard to distinguish friend from foe at a glance—whether it’s truly siding with the enemy or a friendly force pretending to fish for information—an IQ test post.

Putting it on this X makes it a bit hard to grasp.

Regardless of whether he is an enemy or a friend, let's give him a proper burial first.

However, in each cycle, there are always people who turn from being fans to detractors and vice versa; it's nothing strange and has become a common occurrence.

Who does BTC not turn without?

Satoshi Nakamoto has been in hiding for so many years, yet BTC has successfully risen from being worthless to over $100,000 each now?

As for those viewpoints that are not worth a rebuttal, even when inputted to the AI (without any additional prompts), the AI will refute them with reasoning and evidence.

I understand your significant concerns about Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies have indeed been used for illegal activities and have an environmental impact. However, it should be noted that:

1. Although Bitcoin has been involved in illegal transactions, most activities are legal. Blockchain technology creates a permanent public record, which actually enhances the transparency of transactions.

2. Environmental issues are gradually being addressed through renewable energy mining and efficiency enhancement technologies, with many mining farms utilizing stranded energy (electricity that would otherwise be wasted).

3. The fiat currency system also has significant environmental costs, including the production of paper money, banking infrastructure, and the energy consumption of the traditional financial system.

4. Centralized systems have inherent risks of inflation, censorship, and reliance on institutional decision-making.

Both systems have their advantages and disadvantages, and rational choices depend on different preferences for currency and value storage. The ideal solution may require integrating the advantages of traditional and innovative systems, striking a balance between efficiency, security, and accessibility.

It's hard to imagine that in today's world, where even AI has reached a certain consensus on the value of BTC, there are still veteran investors who choose to exit on their own.

A few years ago, the famous economist Taleb, after liquidating his BTC, even wrote an elaborate paper titled “The Bitcoin Black Paper”, attempting to argue that the value of BTC is zero using academic language.

Years have passed, and BTC has not only failed to go to zero, but has also increased several times.

Perhaps the theory of cognitive dissonance is exerting a huge influence. Anyone, even experts, finds it difficult to overcome it rationally.

According to this theory, people will engage in the following irrational self-brainwashing:

1. Post-Decision Rationalization

If an investor chooses to liquidate under the influence of Bitcoin price fluctuations or negative news, they may experience a conflict of “Did I make a mistake?” if the Bitcoin price rises after selling. The regret of lost earnings and the original intention to avoid risk create cognitive dissonance. The increasing psychological pressure forces investors to rationalize their initial liquidation decision, such as:

Emphasizing the rationality of hedging: “I preserved the principal and avoided a crash” (even if there was no actual crash).

Undervalue Bitcoin: “BTC is just a bubble, it will inevitably go to zero” or “Blockchain has no practical value.”

Amplifying negative information: focusing more on news about regulatory crackdowns, hacker incidents, etc., while neglecting positive signals.

2. Effort Justification

If investors have invested a lot of time/money in researching Bitcoin (such as learning technology, tracking the market), liquidating their positions will conflict with their efforts. Cognitive dissonance will lead investors to rationalize their liquidation decisions internally:

“This experience has made me see the dangers of the speculative market, and I will be more cautious in the future” (regarding clearing positions as a “cost of growth”).

“Although I lost money, I learned a valuable lesson” (using cognitive gains to offset financial losses).

3. Attitude Change

If investors originally had a positive outlook on Bitcoin but were forced to liquidate (such as in urgent need of money or panic selling). The action (selling) directly contradicts their belief (long-term bullish), creating cognitive dissonance. At this time, investors may internally rationalize or self-comfort with the following explanations:

Denying the original belief: “Bitcoin is not 'digital gold' at all, it is just a high-risk asset.”

Turning to new goals: “Fiat currency is more stable” or “Gold is the real safe-haven asset” (such as citing Peter Schiff's views for self-verification).

Four, External Attribution

If investors close their positions and Bitcoin continues to rise, they may attribute the responsibility to external factors. At this point, cognitive dissonance will lead investors to experience rationalizing psychological activities:

“The market is manipulated, and retail investors can never win.”

“The Federal Reserve's policy is abnormal and disrupts market rules.”

“The media/expert misled me” (instead of admitting my own judgment error).

Cognitive dissonance theory reveals a problem: humans really need to maintain self-consistency too much. In other words, humans really cannot accept the outcome of “I was wrong”. Understanding this can help us be wary of our own psychological traps and view others' investment choices more rationally.

Document decision-making logic and operate with discipline; maintain diverse sources of information and actively engage with opposing viewpoints; accept market uncertainty and acknowledge the limitations of one’s understanding. These methods help avoid being dominated by cognitive dissonance and prevent excessive rationalization from obscuring decision-making errors.

You may feel that your inner self is always your ally. However, in the financial markets, your own inner self often becomes your greatest enemy.

Elevating your level of awareness to the point where you can self-reflect in a timely manner allows you to often recognize the moments when you betray yourself and decisively bury your allies.