The well-known trader Pickle Cat stated on her personal channel that everyone is shouting about a Bear Market, but after carefully studying each macro signal, she found that everything points to a bull run. From a Technical Analysis perspective, 106,000 is a key price level for Bitcoin. She is optimistic that a big market movement will occur before Christmas, and the probability of a pullback is very small.
(Renowned trader: Trading is a more addictive behavior than drugs, two steps to help you quit 80% of bad trades)
Pickle Cat: From a macro and on-chain data perspective, Bitcoin is not bearish at all.
According to Pickle Cat's observations, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates twice this year, and quantitative tightening will officially end on December 1, which means the pressure of capital outflow from the market will be relieved. At the same time, inflation is cooling, the dollar is weakening, and institutional investors are taking advantage of retail panic to position themselves. She pointed out that the only uncertainty at the moment is the risk of a government shutdown, and once that is eliminated, the market may welcome a releasing rebound.
She organized the operations of several key institutions, implying that they are entering the market:
JPMorgan (: Last quarter, Bitcoin ETF holdings increased by 64%, and they predict that they may hold 170,000 BTC within a year. Pickle Cat jokingly said: “This bank, which once called Bitcoin a scam, is now buying in crazily. Isn't it ironic?”
BlackRock: Its IBIT ETF has held approximately 780,000 BTC, accounting for about 4% of the total supply.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF: On November 6, there was a net inflow of approximately $240 million in a single day, ending six consecutive days of capital outflow, with total holdings reaching 6% of the entire network supply.
Hedge funds: Currently, about 55% of funds have cryptocurrency exposure, a significant increase from 47% last year.
At the same time, on-chain data is also very clear:
Fear and Greed Index: Dropped to 21, which falls into the extreme fear range, historically often a starting point for a rebound.
Holding coin profit ratio: 71% of Bitcoin is still in a profitable state, indicating that strong holders have not sold.
Stablecoin Activity: In October, the trading volume of stablecoins on Ethereum reached 2.82 trillion USD, which is like gunpowder, ready to ignite.
Leverage liquidation completed: Even JPMorgan has pointed out that the market's deleveraging process is basically over.
Pickle Cat believes that this marks a reset in the market, which is in the cleanest state it has been in for months, and liquidity will reopen.
Bitcoin touches key price level of 106,000 USD
Then, from the perspective of Technical Analysis, she concluded that $106,000 is a critical turning point. At that time, BTC was around $102,000, testing the lower edge of the Bollinger Bands. RSI was at 37, and the MACD red bars were shortening, indicating that the downward momentum was weakening. If Bitcoin is blocked at 106K, it may retrace to the $94K–$98K range ) Fib 0.5–0.618 zone (. If it can hold above 106K, it is expected to initiate a rally before Christmas, and a significant correction is unlikely before the holidays.
Pickle Cat pointed out that this structure is similar to past resonance bottoms: RSI entering an emotional oversold zone, MACD momentum peaking, and Bollinger Bands hitting the bottom are often precursors to short-term rebounds or local bottoms.
The bull run isn't over yet! Pickle Cat: Welcoming the market before Christmas.
She emphasized that she is not an indicator worshiper, but uses technical indicators as auxiliary tools to judge market rhythm and emotional fatigue. The market rarely bottoms out due to patterns, but rather due to weakness. Currently, the market is divided: half are calling for a Bear Market, while the other half are calling for a bull run pause. Pickle Cat believes both are correct, depending on the observation cycle. We may see a Bear Market around mid-2026, but this wave has not yet ended.
In a time of widespread pessimism in the market, Pickle Cat remains confident: “We survived 2022, and we will survive this time. Before Christmas, we will receive the gifts that the market brings us.”
This article: Renowned trader: Bitcoin is ready to welcome the Christmas market, $106,000 is the key price level. First appeared in Chain News ABMedia.
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