Bitunix Analyst: Milan hints at a potential rate cut of over 100 basis points in 2026, with employment data becoming the key watershed for policy decisions

BlockBeats News, January 7 — Federal Reserve Board Member Stephen Milar recently pointed out that the current interest rate policy is “obviously restrictive,” which is substantially weighing on the economy, and explicitly stated that there are “well over 100 basis points” of reasons to cut rates by 2026. This statement clearly leans dovish, contrasting sharply with some officials’ views that policy is already near neutral, and also highlighting the growing divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding economic outlook and policy stance.

From a macro perspective, whether monetary policy is excessively tight still primarily depends on the actual performance of the labor market. This week, the US will release a series of key employment data including ADP, JOLTS, initial unemployment claims, and non-farm payrolls. These “employment health checks” will be crucial in assessing whether the economy can withstand high interest rates. If employment remains resilient, the justification for the Fed to pause rate cuts in the short term will increase; conversely, if the data weakens again, the voices of the aggressive easing camp represented by Milar may quickly amplify.

On the crypto market level, this divergence itself signals an important forward-looking indicator. Uncertainty in the interest rate path means liquidity expectations will remain highly sensitive to data changes, potentially amplifying short-term volatility; however, if subsequent employment and inflation data point toward a policy shift, the market will reassess the medium- to long-term liquidity environment, providing structural support for assets with “monetary attributes” such as Bitcoin.

Bitunix analyst: The current situation is not just about individual officials’ statements, but rather a convergence of policy disagreements with key data. The direction of employment data will determine whether the market moves toward “interest rate pause” or “preemptive deeper easing,” and the core focus of the crypto market remains on whether there is a substantial shift in liquidity expectations.