CryptoQuant CEO warns: Under capital depletion, Bitcoin may enter a "long sideways trend"

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently stated that Bitcoin may not experience a sharp rally in the coming months, but instead enter a relatively stable sideways consolidation phase. He pointed out that although historical cycles show Bitcoin prices often fluctuate at the beginning of the year, the market in the first quarter of 2026 may present a different trend.

In a public comment on Wednesday, Ki Young Ju bluntly said that the influx of new funds into the Bitcoin market has already dried up significantly. He believes that as gold and silver prices continue to rise, some capital is flowing back into traditional assets such as stocks, commodities, and “physical gemstones,” which in the short term weakens Bitcoin’s appeal. Against this backdrop, he predicts that Bitcoin is unlikely to experience a significant pullback from high levels as in past cycles, but rather will oscillate within a high-range zone.

According to CoinMarketCap data, at the time of writing, Bitcoin is priced at approximately $90,890, down over 2% in the past 24 hours. Earlier this week, Bitcoin briefly touched a high of $94,400 but then retreated, reflecting a lack of market momentum.

This “sideways prediction” contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s historical performance. Data shows that since 2013, Bitcoin’s average January gain has been 3.81%, while February and March tend to perform more strongly, with historical average gains of 13.12% and 12.21%, respectively. Therefore, if the lack of directional movement continues into early 2026, it will significantly deviate from past seasonal patterns.

Previously, market figures including veteran trader Peter Brandt and Fidelity macro research head Jurrien Timmer also warned that Bitcoin could pull back to the $65,000 or even $60,000 range. Meanwhile, market sentiment remains subdued. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has been in the “fear” zone since November 2025, currently at 28, indicating that investors’ risk appetite remains cautious.

However, spot Bitcoin ETFs are signaling some positive signs. Data from Farside Investors shows that in the first three trading days of 2026, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of approximately $925.3 million, indicating that some institutional funds are re-entering the market.

Although Ki Young Ju’s outlook is somewhat conservative, the market is not uniformly bearish. Risk investor Tim Draper believes 2026 will be a key year for Bitcoin to go mainstream, and Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen also stated that Bitcoin may break the traditional four-year cycle and hit a new all-time high again in 2026. Overall, Bitcoin may experience short-term volatility, but medium- to long-term divergences remain significant.