ChainCatcher 消息，富达全球宏观总监 Jurrien Timmer 发文表示，比特币现在的走势更接近互联网的 S 型曲线，而不是幂律曲线。很多比特币支持者宣称四年周期已经结束，新的结构性上涨浪潮即将到来。我对此持怀疑态度，并非质疑减半周期的影响力正在减弱（这一点我同意），而是质疑熊市不再出现的说法。
目前，比特币的底线是 6.5 万美元（此前的高点），幂律趋势线显示底线则是 4.5 万美元。虽然距离目标价位还有一段距离，但如果比特币在未来一年内进入盘整阶段，幂律趋势线可能会更接近 6.5 万美元，并可能成为比特币的生死线。但这或许（也可能不会）是未来（或未来一年）才会发生的事情。
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