On January 19, it was reported that Toncoin (TON) has recently experienced a phase rebound, but the overall trend remains cautious, with profit-taking pressures limiting its further upward potential. From a medium-term perspective, TON has not yet reversed the downtrend formed over the past six months.
Over the past month, Toncoin has repeatedly faced resistance around $1.70. Market analysis suggests that the rebound of some altcoins in early January was mainly driven by Bitcoin’s price temporarily breaking through $90,000. However, despite Bitcoin still holding key support levels, TON’s performance in the past week has been relatively weak, with a slight price decline, indicating limited enthusiasm for chasing gains.
On-chain data also signals caution. The 90-day MVRV indicator has risen significantly, indicating that some short- to medium-term holders are in profit zones, increasing the motivation to realize gains, which could suppress further price increases. Meanwhile, the number of open contracts has grown rapidly, but the average coin age remains sideways, reflecting that new positions are mainly short-term trades, with no obvious long-term capital inflow, and market confidence remains insufficient.
From a technical perspective, the weekly trend remains bearish. Both the DMI indicator and price patterns show that the bulls have not yet gained trend dominance. It is believed that only a successful break above the $3.75 key threshold could potentially trigger a more sustained medium- to long-term rally for TON. Until then, the rebound is more of a technical correction.
Short-term charts are relatively optimistic. Over the past two months, the OBV indicator has not made new lows, and daily trading volume has increased since late December last year, indicating heightened activity among short-term funds. Currently, the supply and demand zone around $1.70 has turned into a phase support level.
For trading investors, short-term bullish opportunities still exist, but risk management is especially critical. The market is generally focused on potential selling pressure around $2.16 and $2.37. If the price falls below $1.56, the short-term trading logic will be broken. Overall, Toncoin is more suitable for swing trading at present rather than trend chasing for higher prices.
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