According to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s senior strategist, Bitcoin’s golden decade may be fading into metallic mediocrity. Represented by the XBT/XAU chart, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio just dropped to 20.18 — almost exactly where it was five years ago.
After reaching 40 in late 2024, the benchmark has been cut in half, reviving fears of a complete return to the 10 zone, which was last seen during crypto’s darkest consolidation phase.
McGlone has been sounding this alarm for months. His core thesis is that Bitcoin had massive overperformance after 2020 due to liquidity-driven hype, and that excess is now bleeding out
Source: Mike McGloneIn this case, the “5-Year Curse” is a warning to macro allocators who are still clinging to the digital gold narrative because the value has remained the same for five years. For McGlone, the next most likely thing to happen is a return to 10 — or another 50% crash for Bitcoin vs. gold.
This is not an abstract theory in dollar terms either. He notes that Bitcoin’s yearly chart shows a failure to break $100,000 in 2025, a rollover below the 200-day moving average, and a weak bounce into early 2026. These factors align with a potential breakdown.
He views this as a setup for a full mean reversion, with $50,000 as the baseline retrace and $10,000 as a possible overshoot, particularly if risk assets deflate post-inflation.
Key trigger? Equities
Over the past decade, Bitcoin’s alpha has correlated with a rising S&P 500 and suppressed volatility. However, the volatility index has remained low since late 2022, and McGlone warns that an increase in equity risk could cause a major decline in the beta of speculative cryptocurrencies.
The real takeaway is that Bitcoin’s chart against gold is no longer bullish, but symmetrical. In this context, symmetry may mean another 50% drop before the bleeding stops.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Morgan Stanley Eyes Dominance in Bitcoin ETFs as Its Low Fee Undercuts Blackrock’s IBIT
Morgan Stanley’s low-fee bitcoin ETF filing challenges Blackrock’s dominance and signals intensifying price competition, with adviser-driven distribution poised to influence flows and reshape the balance of power among spot ETF issuers.
Morgan Stanley Undercuts Blackrock With Low-Fee Bitcoin ETF F
Coinpedia21m ago
Why bitcoin's 'compressed' valuation offers reduced downside risk versus stocks
Bitwise suggests Bitcoin has priced in tighter monetary policy impacts, while stocks remain vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. Rising energy prices pressure inflation, affecting Fed rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, already adjusting to risk appetites, shows resilience compared to falling equities.
CoinDesk57m ago
Saylor Makes Bold STRC Call: What’s Next for Bitcoin?
_Strategy CEO Phong Le says 80% of STRC holders are retail investors, driven by lower volatility and yield demand._
_Michael Saylor calls STRC a top global dividend stock as data shows its yield outperforming major competitors._
_STRC gains attention among income investors as preferred stoc
LiveBTCNews1h ago
