Bitcoin ETF holders face over 15% unrealized losses: Will the decline in BTC price trigger a new wave of redemptions?

February 2 News, Bitcoin (BTC) prices continue to decline, with the latest quote around $76,800, significantly below previous highs. As a result, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF investors are facing an average unrealized loss of about 15%, and market sentiment is increasingly cautious. Research institutions Bianco Research and 10x Research estimate that since the ETF was listed in the U.S., investors’ average holding cost has been approximately $90,200, meaning the unrealized loss per BTC has exceeded $13,000.

Against the backdrop of price pressure, some short-term funds and speculators are re-evaluating their holding risks. Analysts point out that if Bitcoin cannot stabilize in the short term, redemption pressure on ETFs could further intensify, creating new downward momentum in the spot market. Especially during periods of weakening sentiment, shifts in capital flow often amplify price volatility.

From capital movement data, ETF demand has cooled significantly. Data shows that January marked the third consecutive month of net capital outflows, and this is the first time such products have experienced a “three consecutive declines” since their launch. During this period, multiple Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of up to $6.18 billion, reflecting that some investors are reducing their risk exposure.

Market participants warn that if the bear market continues, it could trigger larger-scale sell-offs. Historical experience shows that when long-term holders start to loosen and focus on liquidation, it is often accompanied by a surge in trading volume and the formation of a cyclical bottom. However, there are also differing opinions that institutional funds flowing into ETFs tend to be more long-term oriented, with a certain level of “stability,” making disorderly sell-offs less likely.

Currently, Bitcoin price trends remain in a critical observation period. If macroeconomic conditions and crypto market sentiment continue to be weak, the decision of ETF holders to stay or exit could become an important variable influencing the medium-term trend of BTC.