Analyst: Weak institutional demand combined with CEX inflow pressure, Bitcoin market faces dual selling pressure

ChainCatcher News: Crypto market analyst Axel posted on social media that data from the past week reveals an increasing gap between institutional demand narratives and actual fund flows. ETF capital inflow momentum remains unstable, while exchange net flows continue to stay positive, with tokens flowing into rather than out of trading platforms. Over the past 7 days, the total net outflow of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs reached 11,042 BTC, with only two trading days showing net inflows.

On February 12, a single-day outflow of 6,120 BTC (approximately $416 million) marked the largest outflow day in this period. On February 17 and 18, consecutive trading days saw outflows of 1,520 and 1,980 BTC respectively, indicating that institutional accumulation momentum has yet to form. Meanwhile, supply on trading platforms has continued to increase, with net flows remaining positive since early February, ranging from +391 to +841 BTC over the past week. Today’s figure is +553 BTC, continuing a two-week trend of positive inflows. This contrasts sharply with January, when token outflows from exchanges were consistently negative.

Axel states that both key indicators point in the same direction: over the past week, ETF outflows totaled 11,042 BTC, while supply on trading platforms has continued to grow. Institutional demand has not only failed to absorb the new market supply but has also become an additional source of selling pressure. The establishment of an active accumulation trend requires at least three consecutive days of positive ETF net inflows and sustained negative net flows on trading platforms (indicating tokens are being withdrawn from exchanges for custody and accumulation). The ETF flow over the next 3 to 5 trading days will be a critical variable in determining market direction.