Circle stock price surges 35% in a single day, with the surge in USDC circulation and reserve income driving the biggest push

On February 26, the stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group (NASDAQ: CRCL) stock surged 35.5%, closing at $83.14, after the company announced its Q4 earnings that significantly exceeded market expectations. Following volatility in the crypto concept stocks, this strong rebound has once again made Circle a focus in the digital asset sector.

The financial report shows that USDC circulation increased by 72% year-over-year, directly driving reserve income and overall revenue higher. Quarterly total revenue reached $770 million, up 77% year-over-year, with $733 million coming from reserve asset earnings. Net profit from ongoing operations was $133 million, with an adjusted EBITDA of $167 million, indicating that the stablecoin reserve income model remains profitable under the current interest rate environment. Jeff Cantwell, an analyst at Seaport Research Partners, pointed out that the continued expansion of USDC indicates strong market demand for dollar-pegged digital assets. CEO Jeremy Allaire stated that if a rate cut cycle occurs in the future, it would help improve currency circulation efficiency and increase stablecoin adoption.

On the market side, analysts believe that the recent rise is driven not only by improved performance but also by technical breakthroughs. Some institutions note that the outlook for digital commerce and AI-driven payment applications has improved, boosting investor sentiment. William Blair’s Andrew Jeffrey advised investors to focus on Circle’s long-term growth logic, while Mizuho Bank analyst Dan Dolev emphasized that the role of stablecoins in the digital payment system continues to strengthen.

In terms of business expansion, Circle is accelerating its platform ecosystem development, including advancing the Arc blockchain test network and Circle Payment Network, expanding cooperation with Visa to integrate USDC into settlement systems, and collaborating with Polymarket to promote on-chain payment scenarios. These initiatives help diversify reliance on single reserve interest income.

However, risks remain. If interest rate declines accelerate unexpectedly, reserve yields could narrow; regulatory policy changes or redemption pressures on stablecoins could also impact profitability. As more stablecoin issuers enter the market, the competitive environment is becoming more intense. Going forward, investors will pay attention to the policy signals from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting and the potential impact of macroeconomic data on stablecoin yield structures.