Geopolitics

Gate News message, April 1, although expectations of a de-escalation in the Iran war situation have warmed somewhat, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is still constrained, and tensions have not been fully eased. Brent crude oil futures (the international crude benchmark price) are currently holding at around $100 per barrel, indicating that the market is still waiting to see whether the situation improves. Forex.com market analyst Fawad Razaqzada noted that in the absence of a clear timetable for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and sufficient credibility, oil prices are unlikely to sustainably fall below $100.

Gate News reports that on April 1, the President of the St. Louis Fed, Mousalem, stated on Wednesday at an event hosted by the American Enterprise Institute in Washington that energy shocks related to the war with Iran will definitely impact overall inflation and may exert pressure on core prices. Mousalem said, "I expect increases in commodity prices to feed into overall inflation on a one-for-one basis, and there will be a period of high overall inflation." He added, "Core inflation will also be affected to some extent by pass-through; I will closely monitor the degree of pass-through and the correlation between the two."

Google Quantum AI warns that 256-bit elliptic curve cryptography may be broken in minutes with under 500,000 qubits, a 20-fold reduction from prior estimates. This urges the crypto sector to expedite the transition to post-quantum cryptography.

Gate News message. On April 1, U.S. President Trump issued a statement saying that the United States will soon withdraw from Iran, but will not provide a specific timetable. Trump said Iran will not have nuclear weapons and does not want nuclear weapons; the United States does not care about nuclear materials issues and will monitor it via satellites.

Gate News message: On April 1, according to reports, Iran responded to related proposals from the United States, saying it would not allow Trump to determine the war timeline. Iranian officials denied the U.S.’s related suggestions for withdrawal or a ceasefire, emphasizing that the progress of the war would be led by Iran.

Bitcoin's price surged to $69,200 amidst Middle Eastern tensions and Donald Trump's comments on Iran seeking a ceasefire. The market's stability hinges on the region's developments, impacting the cryptocurrency's volatility.

Gate News message: On April 1, U.S. President Trump issued a statement saying that the president of Iran’s new regime has just asked the United States for a ceasefire. Trump said that, compared with the previous administration, Iran’s new president is less aggressive and has a higher intellect. The U.S. side will consider the ceasefire request when the Strait of Hormuz is open, free, and clear. Trump also warned that before the conditions are met, the United States will bomb Iran into an endless abyss—or, as he put it, send it back to the Stone Age.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said in an interview that the firm may move into prediction markets, adding that while it is, in most cases, like gambling, professional investors can benefit from it. He also announced an “American Dream” investment plan and shared his views on geopolitics and AI technology, arguing that capitalism can improve society and that AI will significantly boost productivity and quality of life.

Legislator Ko Ru-jün proposed adding Bitcoin and stablecoins to Taiwan’s foreign exchange reserves to strengthen the country’s ability to deal with future risks. The governor of the central bank, Yang Chin-long, said that its position remains unchanged and that it still takes a cautious view of these digital assets, especially due to concerns about price volatility and liquidity risk. Central banks around the world generally do not want to hold digital assets, and in the short term Taiwan is unlikely to implement this proposal; it will need more in-depth discussion of how it relates to foreign exchange reserves.

U.S. mortgage rates have risen for four straight weeks, reaching the highest level since last August, dampening refinancing and home-buying activity. The 30-year mortgage rate rose to 6.57%, and both the home purchase application index and the refinancing index declined. Inflation concerns have driven rates higher, as the low borrowing-cost effects seen earlier in the year have faded.

Gate News message, on April 1, due to Iran shutting the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports in March fell by 50%.

The Middle East situation has taken a turn, with U.S. President Trump predicting that the Iran–U.S. conflict will end within 2 to 3 weeks, triggering a rebound in global markets. Asian stocks logged their strongest gains in months, while the U.S. stock market and the cryptocurrency market also rose. Iran has expressed a willingness to end the conflict, and if the United Arab Emirates joins the fighting, it could affect oil prices. As market sentiment improves, the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs is expected to bring in new capital, driving the market trend higher.

Gate News message. On April 1, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported that Iran launched multiple missile and drone attacks on Israel and U.S. military bases.

Gate News update: On April 1, the Arizona Digital Asset Reserve Bill is approaching the final voting stage. The bill would allow the state to hold the seized BTC and XRP instead of auctioning them off.

An analyst at ING said that the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz could be a key factor driving a sharp drop in the U.S. dollar. It is still unclear whether the strait will re-open, and the U.S. Dollar Index falling back to the March 23 low of 99.0 needs a clearer timeline.

Gate News update. On April 1, U.S. President Trump said he is strongly considering having the United States withdraw from NATO because NATO failed to join his war against Iran. Trump called NATO a “paper tiger” and said that having the United States withdraw from NATO is “not up for further discussion.”

March 31 saw a sharp jump in the three major U.S. stock indexes, with the Dow surging by more than 1,125 points and posting its best single-day performance. However, the S&P 500 fell 5.09% for the month of March, the worst performance since 2022, and market confidence remained weak. The VIX volatility index stayed elevated, suggesting investors are still on high alert. Soaring oil prices weighed on Asian markets; in March, capital outflows totaled $52 billion, with Taiwan hit the hardest. As the April earnings reporting season approaches, the market’s outlook remains unclear.

On April 1, 2026, Trump’s remarks about withdrawing troops triggered a sharp sell-off in the crude oil market, and oil prices quickly fell. This shift not only affects the energy market, but also changes the pricing of global broad asset classes. The decline in crude oil has a dual impact on the liquidity environment in the crypto market and on mining costs; the market has begun to reassess the relationship between geopolitical risk and crypto assets. In the future, the market will be constrained by multiple structural risks, and industry competitiveness may shift toward improving technology and compliance capabilities.

Gate News message, April 1, Iran’s parliament issued a statement saying the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened. The Iranian side has not held any related negotiations, and will not hold such negotiations in the future.

The Bitcoin mining industry faces severe challenges: mining costs have surged to $88,000, while the Bitcoin price is about $68,000, leading to worsening losses for miners. As geopolitical risk and high oil prices continue to take their toll, hashrate keeps declining, and the resulting industry pressure has also triggered market instability. Many mining companies have begun transitioning to AI and high-performance computing to stay afloat.