Btw, @Polymarket is now pricing a 95% chance of a Fed rate cut on Dec 10.

For crypto, this is a macro toggle for how the entire market trades into 2026.

Since the Oct 10 washout, BTC has traded like a confused high-beta macro asset: first down ~25% to ~$80K, now back to ~$93K while total crypto mcap fell 4%.

Sentiment flipped from “this was supposed to be the bull year” to pure indecision.

A cut is the next clean catalyst, and if the Fed delivers 25 bps, the transmission into crypto likely runs through three channels:

1️⃣ Cheaper liquidity
Lower front-end rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding BTC/ETH vs. T-bills and compress funding rates across perps + DeFi credit.
Leverage becomes cheaper, basis widens, risk-taking improves.

2️⃣ Stablecoin + exchange flow impulse
Easier policy historically coincides with expanding stablecoin floats and rising CEX/DEX volumes as cash leaves money markets and rotates into risk.

3️⃣ Relative yield dynamics
As Treasury yields drift lower, staking, LP fees, and real-yield DeFi look more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis – especially for institutional allocators deciding between USD cash vs. on-chain carry.

If that scenario plays out, we likely get a classic liquidity-beta trade:

BTC leads → ETH follows → higher-beta alts overreact, especially the “cleaner” segments (large-cap DeFi, quality L2s, infra).

A rate cut doesn’t fix broken tokenomics – but it raises the ceiling for reflexivity.

The 5% no-cut scenario is the inverse:
• Credit stays expensive
• Perp leverage bleeds out
• USD stays firm
• Stablecoin growth slows
• Alts underperform BTC as liquidity retreats to safety

In that world, the October drawdown looks less like a shock and more like the start of a digestion phase.

My view:
A December cut is directionally bullish, but not a new paradigm.
It’s a liquidity accelerant.
Positioning, token supply, and fundamentals will still separate winners from the index.