There is new progress this week in the drama surrounding the Federal Reserve chair nomination. Trump has publicly stated that he wants to meet with several candidates, claiming it will be the "final interview." It sounds quite formal, but everyone knows deep down—it's more like going through the motions.

What’s interesting is Haskett’s stance. This popular candidate first said that "becoming chair will maintain independence," but shortly afterward, he was already discussing large-rate cuts. His words are quite eloquent, which translates to: I think I’m quite independent, but whether you believe it or not, that’s another matter.

The market response was very direct. Haskett’s win probability on Polymarket dropped by 6 percentage points, now standing at 71%. Kevin Waugh’s chances have increased somewhat, but he still lags far behind Haskett.

Honestly, such "independence declarations" appearing at critical moments tend to make the market start to ponder: Is he truly independent, or is he just preemptively paving the way for a policy shift? For the crypto market, expectations of rate cuts are usually positive, but if the Fed’s credibility is questioned, volatility could be more intense than expected.