The Fed is set to make a big move this week, and the interest rate decision in the early hours of Thursday may not be as straightforward as you think.

Is the market widely expecting a 25 basis point rate cut? Don't rush to conclusions. There are dissenting voices within the FOMC, with some members explicitly opposing a cut. What's more complicated is that the government shutdown has led to missing key economic data for October, which narrows the room for SEP and dot plot adjustments.

There's also a variable: RRP (Reverse Repurchase Program) may face adjustments. Some investment banks predict that the Federal Reserve may initiate a $45 billion monthly bond purchase operation. If this materializes, the focus of the meeting will directly shift to balance sheet expansion, with interest rate paths becoming a secondary consideration.

Just look at $BTC's recent movement to see that, ahead of the decision, funds are wildly testing the direction. Prices fluctuate wildly, indicating that large investors are still observing policy signals.

These policy turning points are often accompanied by intense volatility. Catching the right moment can be an opportunity, but missing it can lead to significant losses. The crypto market has always been sensitive to macroeconomic policies, and the Fed's stance this time may directly influence the next few weeks’ trends.

It is recommended to closely watch the meeting statement at 2 a.m. Thursday, especially Powell's comments on the balance sheet.