Is the bull market correction or the start of a bear market? Three key data dashboards to verify market health

Recent market fluctuations have sparked widespread confusion and concern among investors. Is the current trend a healthy correction within a bull market, or the beginning of a bear market?

According to Gate Market Data, as of February 9, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at $70,461, with a 24-hour trading volume of $82.134 billion, a market capitalization of $1.41 trillion, and a market share of 56.14%.

Market divergence is becoming increasingly apparent. On one side, predictions suggest a high probability (82%) that Bitcoin could further decline to $65,000. On the other side, institutions still maintain expectations of reaching $150,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year.

Market Status and Data Foundations

The current cryptocurrency market is experiencing intense volatility. Since reaching a historic high of $126,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has retraced over 40%. In just the past 24 hours, 578,500 traders worldwide have been liquidated, totaling approximately $2.61 billion, with long positions accounting for 88.5% of liquidations.

In this context, understanding the true market condition is especially important. Traditional technical analysis can no longer meet the demands of the complex current environment, especially when news events frequently influence the market. Today’s analysis will build a comprehensive evaluation framework incorporating multiple indicators. These data sources can provide deeper market insights than price charts alone.

On-Chain Health Indicators

On-chain data offer the most direct window into market health, reflecting actual behaviors on the blockchain. According to Glassnode research, several key indicators warrant special attention.

First, exchange net flow is an important market sentiment indicator. Continuous net outflows from exchanges generally suggest that long-term holders are accumulating, reducing selling pressure. Data shows that when exchange net outflows persist and the average holding duration of whale addresses exceeds 60 days, market selling pressure significantly weakens.

Second, changes in long-term holder positions are crucial for assessing market maturity. A reduction in selling by long-term holders often signals a market bottom. These holders tend to have stronger holding intentions and lower trading frequency, and their behavior reflects recognition of the market’s long-term value.

Despite volatile prices, Bitcoin’s on-chain fundamentals remain solid. The proportion of long-term holders remains stable, indicating that market panic may be overstated.

Derivatives Market Signals

Data from the derivatives market provides another critical dimension for understanding market sentiment. Contract trading, funding rates, and other indicators reveal traders’ risk appetite and leverage levels.

Recent market declines caused over 570,000 liquidations, with long positions accounting for $2.31 billion, far exceeding the $300 million in short liquidations. This imbalance indicates excessive leverage on long positions, which is a sign of an unhealthy market.

Funding rates are key indicators of perpetual contract market sentiment. When funding rates are positive and remain high, it suggests strong bullish sentiment, but also potential over-optimism and risk of a correction.

Historical data shows that extremely high funding rates often precede short-term pullbacks, while negative funding rates may indicate overly pessimistic market sentiment and potential rebounds. Caution is advised when interpreting current derivatives market conditions to avoid blindly chasing gains or panic selling.

Fundamentals and Macro Environment

The cryptocurrency market has never been entirely detached from traditional financial systems. Macro factors, especially monetary policy, directly influence market liquidity and risk appetite.

The US Federal Funds Rate path and M2 money supply changes are key factors shaping the overall level of global asset prices. Loose monetary policy often drives capital into high-risk, high-reward assets like cryptocurrencies.

Recent US employment data shows that in January, ADP employment increased by 22,000, below expectations of 45,000 and the previous 41,000. This has led traders to revise the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next rate cut from July to June.

The adoption of real-world asset tokenization is another important fundamental indicator, determining whether blockchain technology’s value can shift from “price-driven” to “value-driven.” With ongoing RWA projects and participation from traditional financial institutions, the fundamental value base of the crypto market is gradually expanding.

Multi-Dimensional Data Dashboard

A comprehensive assessment of market health requires integrating multiple indicators. We recommend investors focus on a dashboard composed of the following core data points:

Long-term holder positions are a key reference for judging long-term market trends. When the proportion of long-term holders continues to rise, it often indicates a market bottom is forming, as these investors tend to increase holdings during panic.

Exchange net flow reflects short-term supply and demand balance. Persistent net outflows suggest investors prefer storing assets in private wallets rather than exchanges, which is generally interpreted as a bullish signal.

Market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) is an important valuation metric. When MVRV drops below 1, it indicates the market is overall at a loss, potentially signaling oversold conditions and investment opportunities.

Stablecoin supply changes are a key indicator of market liquidity. Growth in stablecoins often precedes price increases, as it represents “waiting funds” available for purchasing cryptocurrencies.

Latest Performance of Mainstream Assets

According to Gate Market Data, as of February 9, 2026, major cryptocurrencies show varied performance: Bitcoin is at $70,461, up 1.68% in the past 24 hours, indicating some stabilization. This price is still about 40% below its all-time high.

Ethereum’s performance is relatively weak, with a slight 0.03% decline over the past 24 hours, and decreases of 8.87% and 32.22% over the past 7 and 30 days, respectively. Ethereum faces challenges including regulatory uncertainty and dispersed market attention.

Solana shows the weakest performance, with a 0.21% increase in the past 24 hours, and declines of 14.33% and 35.92% over 7 and 30 days, respectively. Over the past year, Solana has fallen 56.15%. Despite an active ecosystem, its price performance has yet to reflect its fundamentals.

These data indicate a clear market divergence: Bitcoin demonstrates relative resilience, while Ethereum and Solana are under greater pressure.

Stablecoin supply has grown from about $200 billion at the start of 2025 to $305 billion. This increase mainly stems from on-chain applications and actual settlement needs, rather than short-term speculation. With over 570,000 traders liquidated in 24 hours, the market is undergoing a brutal leverage washout. The tokenization of real-world assets is quietly becoming a key factor in transforming the market’s fundamental value base.