Why does Bernstein see Bitcoin rising to $150,000? A comprehensive analysis of the confidence crisis and structural risks

Analyst Gautam Chhugani of Bernstein states in a recent report that the current Bitcoin market is experiencing the “weakest bear market scenario in history,” and that institutional synergy will be a key force supporting Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by the end of 2026.

Bitcoin prices have recently experienced a significant correction. As of February 10, 2026, BTC is priced at $70,162.8, down 0.59% for the day, with a total decline of 9.10% over the past week. This market volatility has raised concerns among investors about systemic risk. However, Bernstein’s latest analysis presents a completely different perspective.

Core Viewpoint: Confidence Crisis, Not Structural Problem

Bernstein, in its latest client report, explicitly states that the current Bitcoin market correction is a confidence crisis rather than a structural issue. This forms the basis of their optimistic forecast.

Led by analyst Gautam Chhugani, the team notes: “What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear market in history.” Unlike previous downturns, this correction has not been accompanied by typical systemic risk signals. They highlight several key differences: no major bankruptcies have occurred, no hidden leverage or systemic collapse has been detected. These are substantial pieces of evidence supporting their “confidence crisis” assessment.

Bernstein maintains its target of $150,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026, implying nearly 119% potential upside from current levels.

Market Status: Price Support Behind the Data

Bitcoin’s recent market performance presents both challenges and potential. According to data from Gate.io, as of February 10, 2026, Bitcoin is priced at $70,162.8, with a 24-hour trading volume of $906.14 million.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin is currently testing a key support level at $73,375. If this support fails, the next significant support zone will be between $62,000 and $65,000.

Historical data suggests that the average price of Bitcoin in 2026 is projected at $70,791.3, with a price fluctuation range between $57,340.95 and $91,320.77.

Key Bitcoin Data Overview

Despite recent price weakness, the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network remain stable. Bernstein believes this correction lacks the catalysts commonly seen in past bear markets, such as leverage collapses or exchange bankruptcies.

Institutional Synergy: New Features of This Cycle

Unlike previous market cycles, the current Bitcoin market demonstrates strong institutional synergy, which is a key reason for Bernstein’s optimism. This institutional synergy manifests in several ways:

A pro-Bitcoin policy environment, including the support of cryptocurrencies by the U.S. president; widespread adoption of spot Bitcoin ETFs; increasing corporate allocations to Bitcoin; and ongoing participation by large asset managers.

Data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $21 billion in inflows, and corporate holdings of Bitcoin have exceeded 1.1 million coins. These figures reflect growing institutional recognition of Bitcoin as a macro financial asset. Bernstein emphasizes that the scale and breadth of institutional support now are unprecedented in previous cycles.

Addressing Market Concerns: Analysis and Rebuttal

Market concerns about Bitcoin mainly focus on several issues. Bernstein analyzes and responds to these concerns, offering new perspectives.

Comparison with gold performance: Analysts acknowledge that Bitcoin has underperformed gold in recent macro volatility, but argue that Bitcoin is still primarily traded as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven.

AI-driven challenges: Regarding fears that Bitcoin may lose relevance in an AI-driven economy, Bernstein believes blockchain and programmable wallets are well-suited for emerging “agent-based” digital environments. Autonomous software agents require global, machine-readable financial infrastructure, which blockchain systems are better equipped to provide than traditional banks limited by closed APIs.

Quantum computing threats: Bernstein admits quantum computing is a long-term consideration but notes that all critical digital infrastructure faces similar cryptographic challenges. Transitioning to quantum-resistant standards will be synchronized across the entire financial system and government networks, with Bitcoin adapting alongside other major platforms.

Corporate leverage and miner dilemmas: Analysts examine corporate leverage and potential miner capitulation issues, noting that leading companies have built debt structures resilient to prolonged downturns. Miners are diversifying operations by redirecting electricity capacity toward AI data centers, reducing dependence on Bitcoin production and minimizing forced selling pressure.

Systemic Risk: Real Threat or Overblown Worry?

While Bernstein remains optimistic about the current market, systemic risk remains a concern for Bitcoin investors.

The crypto market crash in October 2025 revealed vulnerabilities in the digital financial system, with market cap evaporating over $150 billion within days. This was not typical volatility of speculative assets but a severe stress test exposing issues in market mechanisms, regulation, and risk transmission.

Unlike traditional financial markets, crypto trading lacks necessary stabilization infrastructure, and price discovery often plunges into “race-to-the-bottom” declines. This “bufferless” market design can amplify pro-cyclicality, accelerating crisis spread. A report from the Bank for International Settlements further highlights that reliance on perpetual futures and synthetic derivatives leverage creates strong pro-cyclicality: falling prices trigger forced liquidations, which in turn accelerate declines.

However, Bernstein emphasizes that this downturn “did not exhibit the systemic risks or major blowups typical of previous bear markets,” which is a key reason they see this correction as different.

Future Outlook: Bitcoin Price Predictions and Market Evolution

Based on current market analysis and institutional synergy assessment, Bernstein offers a clear outlook for Bitcoin’s future development.

Data from Gate.io indicates that the average price of Bitcoin in 2026 is projected at $70,791.3, with a fluctuation range between $57,340.95 and $91,320.77. This provides a reference framework for short-term price movements.

Looking further ahead, by 2031, Bitcoin could reach $149,511.29, representing a potential return of +92.00% compared to today’s price.

An important insight from Bernstein is that Bitcoin is transitioning from a pure cryptocurrency to a “macro financial asset.” Its price increasingly tracks traditional macroeconomic cycles rather than solely crypto-native adoption. This shift means Bitcoin will be more influenced by global liquidity, monetary policy, and macroeconomic indicators. Future market participation will rely more on institutional involvement, including spot ETFs, crypto-backed loans, tokenized money market funds, and corporate treasuries. While these developments enhance market maturity, they also raise concerns about the sustainability of leverage strategies involving national treasuries.

Bitcoin’s network still maintains a market cap exceeding $1.4 trillion, with its all-time high reaching $126,080. The current price remains well below that peak. As long-term challenges like quantum computing become more tangible, and as Bitcoin transitions from block rewards to a transaction fee-driven security model, the ecosystem faces deep evolutionary pressures. Financial institutions and regulators are working to establish global frameworks for this rapidly evolving asset class. Subtle shifts in market sentiment reflect the increasing integration of traditional finance and digital assets.