Unveiling "Liquidity Swap for Equity": The Strategic Approach of Jump Trading and the Underlying Logic Behind Kalshi and Polymarket

Recently, the world’s leading quantitative trading firm Jump Trading reached a groundbreaking agreement with two major prediction market platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket. Under the agreement, Jump Trading will provide market-making liquidity services to these platforms in exchange for minority equity stakes. This marks a new “liquidity-for-equity” approach, with professional market makers engaging more deeply in and reshaping the rapidly growing prediction market ecosystem.

Core of the Deal: A Win-Win Resource Exchange

The core of this transaction is not traditional cash investment but a strategic partnership based on resource and capability exchange.

• For Kalshi and Polymarket: Gaining liquidity support from top-tier market makers means better market depth, narrower bid-ask spreads, and more stable trading environments. This is crucial for enhancing user experience, attracting broader participation, and serving as a key step for these platforms to transition from “novel applications” to “mature financial market infrastructure.”
• For Jump Trading: This signifies a role upgrade from pure trading service provider to strategic owner and ecosystem co-creator in the prediction market space. Through equity ties, Jump Trading can share future growth dividends and systematically leverage its market-making expertise, accumulated in traditional finance, to empower this emerging sector.

Notably, Jump Trading’s equity holdings differ between the two platforms. Reports indicate that on the CFTC-regulated Kalshi platform, Jump Trading will hold a fixed amount of equity. Meanwhile, on Polymarket, which is actively expanding its U.S. compliance operations, the stake will be linked to the future liquidity volume provided in the U.S. market, reflecting stronger performance-based incentives and long-term commitment.

Strategic Significance: Institutionalization Sweeps Prediction Markets

Jump Trading’s move is not an isolated event but a clear signal of the “institutionalization” trend in prediction markets. Previously, firms like Susquehanna International Group had engaged in similar collaborations.

• From fringe to mainstream: Prediction markets have long been considered niche, but as regulatory clarity improves and public awareness rises, their value as information aggregators and risk hedging tools is being reevaluated. Institutional involvement brings professional pricing, substantial capital, and rigorous risk control, accelerating market formalization.
• Liquidity is life: Like all trading markets, liquidity is vital for prediction markets’ development. Lack of liquidity leads to price distortions and slippage, discouraging users. Introducing professional market makers like Jump Trading essentially injects a “liquidity engine” into the platform, laying the foundation for scaling and valuation growth.
• Foresight of future integration: This partnership model is likely to be emulated by more institutions. It signals a future where professional trading firms, hedge funds, and traditional venture capitalists become key capital and strategic partners for emerging fintech companies, fostering closer integration of prediction markets, crypto assets, and traditional derivatives markets.

Industry Impact and Market Outlook

This collaboration is expected to have a profound industry impact. First, the trading experience on Kalshi and Polymarket will significantly improve with enhanced liquidity, potentially attracting more institutional and retail investors. Second, valuation benchmarks in the industry may be reshaped, with platforms backed by strong, professional liquidity commanding higher premiums. Lastly, this model offers a replicable “professional institution + innovative platform” partnership paradigm for other decentralized applications (such as DeFi, sports betting, etc.).

Crypto Market Overview

Amid ongoing macro-financial innovation, the mainstream crypto asset markets continue to show vitality. As a leading global cryptocurrency exchange, Gate provides comprehensive and timely market data. As of February 10, 2026:

• Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at $70,059.3, with a market cap of $1.41 trillion, holding a 56.14% market dominance. Its 24-hour price change is -1.15%.
• Ethereum (ETH) is priced at $2,104.73, with a market cap of $252.82 billion, accounting for 10.04% of the market. Over the past 24 hours, it has increased by 0.62%.

These figures reflect that, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the crypto market remains highly engaged and capitalized. The ongoing maturation and innovation of market structures—such as institutionalized prediction markets—contribute to a diverse digital asset landscape.

In summary, Jump Trading’s deal to exchange liquidity services for equity in Kalshi and Polymarket is a landmark convergence of capital and innovation. It not only consolidates the competitive advantages of these two prediction market leaders but also sends a strong signal to the industry: the era of specialization and institutionalization has arrived, and the value of liquidity is being redefined and priced anew. For investors and observers focused on fintech innovation, this development warrants ongoing attention.